3 Reasons Nolan Maclin Will Win 2026 NL Rookie of the Year Over Connor Griffin, JJ Weatherholt

Nolan Maclin may not enter 2026 as the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, but he is one of the most realistic challengers to Connor Griffin and JJ Weatherholt. The The Mets right-hander already has a proven track record MLB success as Griffin and Weatherholt prepare for their first full exposure in big league competition. That difference is important. It shapes perception, role and opportunity.

Griffin brings elite athleticism and the buzz of top prospects. Weatherholt offers great offensive consistency. McLean, however, offers something voters consistently value. Dominance and volume at the major league level. If he builds on his 2025 debut, he could quickly go from contender to favorite.

Here are three reasons why he has a legitimate path to the award.

Reason 1: Proven MLB success gives McLean an edge

McLean made his Mets debut in 2025 and immediately steadied the fading club. He made eight starts, posting a 5–1 record with a 2.06 ERA in 48 innings. He struck out 57 batters and walked just 16. His 1.04 WHIP and strong strikeout rate supported the performance, suggesting he was sustainable rather than volatile.

He remained under rookie restrictions, allowing him to enter the race for NL Rookie of the Year in 2026. Voters have already seen him succeed against major league hitters. He even received Rookie of the Year votes, despite limited innings — an early sign of respect.

In his third career start, McLean pitched eight innings against the eventual NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies, allowing four hits, no walks, and striking out six. Philadelphia not only won the division, but also finished with 96 wins – second most in the National League behind the Milwaukee Brewers – underscoring the caliber of the roster that has been silenced. He looked composed and in control, not overwhelmed by the moment. That kind of performance leaves a lasting impression.

Griffin and Weatherholt still have to go through the league’s adjustment period. McLean has already shown he can handle it.

Reason 2: Ace-level metrics create a higher ceiling

The profile of the 24-year-old resembles that of a rookie. He pairs a mid-90s siphon with heavy movement and a sharp curveball that effectively separates the fastball. McLean misses sticks, limits hard contactand prevents attackers from picking up the ball – traits that support long-term success.

His strikeout rate is among the best for rookie pitchers. His ball tendencies suppress home runs. The advanced metrics supported his 2.06 ERA, not contradicted it. In prize races driven by both production and influence, that combination is powerful.

Griffin, a shortstop, went through three minor league levels in 2025, hitting .333 with 21 home runs and 65 stolen bases. The tools are undeniable. However, translating that production to the majors at age 19 is a risk. Big league pitchers adjust quickly.

Weatherholt reached Triple-A and showed ease at the plate. He projects as a high-level on-base hitter with differential power and steady overall value. That consistency bolsters the lineup, but it may not produce eye-popping numbers that dominate awards talk.

If the Mets rookie fills out 150 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and around 170 strikeouts, he will generate headline stats. Griffin and Weatherholt need to spread their value across multiple categories. McLean can dominate the most visible.

Reason 3: Stability and rotatability

Opportunity often determines rewards. Maclin enters 2026 firmly planted in the Mets’ rotation, with projections placing him as a No. 2 or strong No. 3 starter. He is expected to take the ball every fifth day in contentious games.

A full season can mean 28 to 30 starts. Volume builds counting statistics, and counting statistics influence voters. If he keeps up his strikeout rate during an extended workload, his candidacy will grow stronger each month.

Griffin’s timeline could be more fluid. Pittsburgh can manage his service time or ease into his downs. Even elite prospects endure adjustment periods that can suppress early-season production.

Wetherholt projects as a starting second baseman, but rookies often trade rest days as they refine their defense. His contribution may come in consistent on-base percentage and reliable play, rather than explosive numbers.

McLean’s job description is simple. Take the mound, limit the runs and pile on the runs. That clarity benefits the Rookie of the Year case based on measurable impact.

It also has a narrative component. The Mets expect to contend. If the young right-hander can help solidify Queens’ expected playoff push, his performances will garner national attention. High-impact startups in a big market carry weight with voters.

Griffin and Weatherholt could enter 2026 with more excitement and may be exciting new names to win the award. But Maclin combines proven major league successtop things and a stable role. That foundation gives him a realistic and compelling path to winning the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year title.