Penn State’s biggest k-factor against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl, and it’s not Drew Allar

Penn State football heads in 2025 Orange Bowl vs. Notre Dame with a chance to play for its first national championship since 1986. The Nittany Lions are led by head coach James Franklin who is in his eleventh season with the program. Big Ten power comes from two impressive College Football Playoff wins over SMU and Boise State.

Penn State’s success is led by an imposing defense that ranks seventh in the nation in points per game at 15.8. This unit will face a physical and versatile Notre Dame floor game that will look to dominate possessions throughout the contest. That element of the game is crucial for both teams as they try to wear down each other’s defenses.

The Nittany Lions’ offense is led by several elite talents in the passing game. This includes quarterback Drew Allar, who many see as a future first round NFL draft pick. The junior threw 24 touchdown passes and seven interceptions while rushing for six scores. These stats were enough to give Allar the 15th best KBR in the country.

In addition to its leader under center, Penn State has the best tight end in the nation in Tyler Warren. At 6’6, 257 lbs, the senior is a nightmare for any team he faces. Warren will be key to a Penn State offense that has been very explosive at times. However, this game will be won in the trenches and the backfield. And with that key comes the game’s most important player; junior running back Kaytron Allen.

Keitron Allen is the key on Thursday night

For the title of greatest k-factor for Penn State, Allen competed with his backfield teammate Nicholas Singleton. The two have both rushed for over 1,000 yards this season, with Singleton actually having the higher rushing average. The reason Catron has the edge is because of the way he runs the ball. Both are physical guards, but Singleton is more than his teammate. This explosiveness was on display in his 53-yard run win over Boise State.

Allen, on the other hand, was more methodical in the Fiesta Bowl with 134 yards rushing. The Norfolk, Virginia native averaged 7.9 yards per carry, with his longest run coming on a 23-yard run. Allen’s longest run of the year was only 32 yards. At 5’11, 229, Catron is a physical back who will look to wear down the Notre Dame defense to stop this powerhouse Penn State offense. The Nittany Lions’ ground game has been on a complete tear recently. The backfield has averaged more than 200 yards in the past three contests and is vital to Penn State’s play-action offense.

Notre Dame similarly has an offense that relies heavily on its ground game. Quarterback Riley Leonard and star running back Jeremiah Love lead the rushing average more than 217 yards per game. While Penn State has a defense equipped to limit the effect of this duo, keeping this duo off the field while Keitron Allen wears down Notre Dame’s defense is the ideal scenario for James Franklin’s team.

Penn State’s offense is going as well as its ground game

This has been no secret for Penn State football this season. The offense is at its best when the rushing attack is moving forward. Penn State has elite third down conversion ratebut much of that stat has to do with the offense consistently being in front of the chains. The games where the Nittany Lions have struggled to score mostly show the team barely rushing for over 100 yards. Such was the case against Ohio State earlier this year when James Franklin’s team ran for 120 yards on a 3.8 per carry average.

As this unit has become more consistent over the last few weeks, Kaitron Allen’s production has increased. In the past three games against College Football Playoff teams, the Nittany Lions have scored 34, 38 and 31 points. In those contests, Allen rushed for a total of 328 yards and three touchdowns. The junior is slated to be the center of the offense Thursday night.

Singleton and Allen should provide a good enough contrast that can knock off the Fighting Irish at points during the Orange Bowl. A versatile approach to this game is what James Franklin will need to implement to keep Notre Dame’s elite defense guessing. Ultimately, though, this Orange Bowl clash will come down to the meat and potatoes of football. Whichever team rushes for more yards is likely to advance to the national title game, and for Penn State, that starts with Keitron Allen.