Rinat Kovbasyuk: The attack on the embassy of Azerbaijan shows how few safe places are left in Kyiv – INTERVIEW

Ukrainian political analyst Rinat Kovbasyuk provides sharp insight into several pressing developments — from Russia rocket attack on the embassy of Azerbaijan in Kiev on the political fate of Mikhail Saakashviliongoing corruption scandals in Ukraine and the durability of Western support for Kiev.

In an interview with Nevs.AzKovbasyuk considers the broader implications of these developments for regional stability, Ukrainian politics and international diplomacy, offering a candid assessment of the challenges facing Ukraine and its partners.

— How would you comment on the Russian missile attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Kiev?

— This latest Russian attack has once again damaged Azerbaijan’s embassy in Ukraine, highlighting how few safe places remain in Kyiv. Whether you are an ordinary citizen or an Azerbaijani diplomat, everyone is now at risk.

While the exact motives behind the Kremlin’s decision to target the Azerbaijani embassy remain unclear, what is certain is that civilian lives, including those of Azerbaijani citizens, are once again at risk. Although the international community strongly condemned the strike and expressed solidarity with both Ukraine and the Azerbaijani diplomatic corps, these reactions are not enough. Only a complete ceasefire can prevent further loss of life.

Shelling the embassy of a third country, in this case Azerbaijan, de jure represents an attack on the territory of another country. It’s another test of patience. Azerbaijan has already responded by summoning the Russian ambassador. However, it is unlikely that the Kremlin will gain anything from this incident other than a further deterioration of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. The embassy staff were civilians, not military personnel, and the building was not a military target.

Moscow’s behavior is increasingly resembling that of a suicide bomber who is ready to cause chaos regardless of the consequences. Therefore, it would not be surprising if Russian missiles end up threatening other foreign embassies, especially Western ones. Ultimately, the question is whether we will allow this to continue. It’s rhetorical, but action is needed, and soon.

Photo: Reuters

— Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was returned from hospital to prison and appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to recognize him as a Ukrainian civilian prisoner of war and exchange him. Could the Georgian authorities agree to return Saakashvili to Ukraine in order to influence the West’s attitude towards Tbilisi?

— It is difficult to predict, but in my opinion, President Zelensky is not particularly interested in the return of Saakashvili to Ukraine. Saakashvili’s political activity in Ukraine has previously created significant instability within the Ukrainian political system. He is a very unpredictable politician who aims to radically transform the country. Given the entrenched corruption in the Ukrainian political establishment and his determination to eliminate it, Saakashvili is not welcome even by the president.

He has become a superfluous figure amidst the continuous flow of political and financial interests. Neither the Ukrainian elite nor society is prepared for a politician like him. Corruption has deeply permeated Ukrainian society and is extremely difficult to eradicate. Saakashvili stands out as a disruptive force in this political chaos.

As for Europe, they may overlook certain things if Saakashvili is released, but overall, it is unlikely that the current Georgian government, by violating the rights of the opposition, will be able to secure a major deal with the EU. All signs indicate that Georgia could even lose its visa-free regime, which would serve as a strong warning to Brussels. European bureaucrats would not oppose such a move, as many Georgians continue to apply for refugee status despite frequent rejections. Abolishing the visa-free regime would reduce financial and administrative burdens for the EU.

— Ukraine was recently rocked by a corruption scandal involving Zelenskiy’s associate Timur Mindich, who was accused of orchestrating large-scale embezzlement at Energoatom. How could it affect Zelenski’s position?

— The Energoatom corruption affair certainly does not help the president’s popularity. However, Ukrainian society is already deeply politicized and such revelations rarely surprise the public anymore. Anti-corruption agencies offer some hope, but their effectiveness is uncertain, as political elites routinely try to influence their work.

Since the election cannot be held at the moment, neither technically nor legally, Zelensky will remain in office regardless, which means that this scandal is unlikely to significantly affect his ratings.

Ukrainians often have short political memories and struggle to critically analyze political information, creating ideal conditions for manipulation by political strategists who can easily divert public attention. Therefore, there will be no major upheavals in the Ukrainian political arena soon. Of course, some officials will be replaced and some temporarily closed, but in general, this cycle will continue. Another fantastic plot is guaranteed, fortunately, there will always be spectators.

Photo: CNA

— How could this scandal affect Western support for the current Ukrainian government?

— In short, probably not. The EU, and to some extent the USA, recognize that the priority today is the survival of Ukraine as a state, and not the elimination of corruption, despite its seriousness. The fall of Ukraine would create far greater problems for Europe.

Western partners will continue to cooperate with Kiev, applying pressure and issuing warnings when necessary, especially given Ukraine’s bid to join the EU. But under the current circumstances, these scandals are unlikely to significantly change overall Western support for the Ukrainian government.

Author: Asif Aydinli

Nevs.Az