Why Draymond Green’s NSFW admission is key to solving the Warriors’ woes

Turns have always been an Achilles heel The Golden State Warriors dynasty– a small sacrifice to pay in exchange for all the good that comes from the intricate, controlled chaos required to maximize the attention drawn by Stephen Curry’s gravitas.

But amid a rough 13-15 start to the season, the turnovers have done the Warriors far more harm than good. The Dubs rank 26th in turnovers (16.1) and 29th in the league in total turnovers (452). They’ve committed 20+ turnovers in five games this season and have committed 51 turnovers during their current three-game losing streak.

That’s a a problem that starts with Draymond Greengeneral of the Golden State. In the last two games, Green has committed 13 tradesfor an unusually negative 0.76 assist-to-rpm ratio in that stretch.

“He’s trying too hard right now,” diagnosed Kerr after the loss to the Phoenix Suns. “He’s such a competitor, he tries too hard to play and he just needs to slow down a little bit.”

These are not the turnovers that come from the natural rhythm of a well-tuned offense, the kind Steve Kerr and the Dubs were happy to live with during four championships. They had errant, reckless, turnovers that opponents used to punish the Warriors in transition – conceding 54 points in the last two games.

Kerr’s assessment matches Green’s. On the trail Warriors loss to PortlandGreen took responsibility for his eight losses, citing his “bad reads and bad decisions.” But Green also pointed to his lack of decisiveness in his passing game right now.

“I’m just going to throw the pass when I know it’s there instead of guessing,” Green said after the loss in Phoenix. “I’m a great freaking passer. So if I see a pass out there, I’m not second-guessing myself. I’m just going to throw it. If I turn it, I turn it.”

He went through Green’s 13 turnovers in the last two games

While Kerr and Green’s individual assessments of the problems of changing players seem to contradict each other, they are both somewhat correct.

On this play from the Portland game, the Warriors struggle with a rebound from Blazers center Donovan Clingen and have a favorable 4-on-4 fast break opportunity with Green leading the break. Green sees Butler running up the middle, wide open, but doesn’t see Shaddon Sharpe lurking, who then deflects the pass.

To Kerr’s point, Green’s twist here comes from trying to stimulate the offense and force the issue. And as for Green, he actually sees Butler for a moment when the window to throw him the ball was open. But one extra dribble and two or three extra steps telegraphed a pass to Sharpe. The hesitation, combined with the insistence on the question, created turnover.

But even if some of these twists have the right idea behind them and can theoretically be tweaked by subtracting the second guess, others are just too telegraphed.

On this possession against the Suns, with Phoenix in scramble mode, Brandin Podziemski finds Green on the wing and Green sees Curry wide open, which should always set off alarm bells for the passer to get the ball to the sharpshooter. Green doesn’t hesitate here, but he stares at Curry and misses Colin Gillespie, who reads Green’s eyes all the way and picks him for an easy layup (that he smokes).

Even when the pass has the right idea and is on offense, Green just throws bad passes. On this fast break opportunity, Green does a good job of breaking into the paint of the Blazers defense. See Quinten Post in the dunk spot, open enough for a good pass to result in a layup. But because Green throws a one-handed, underhand, off-target pass, it allows Sharpe to recover from the corner and make the steal.

Consequences of Green’s trades

Again, the process behind many of the Greens is correct. And when the pass is good, the read is right, and the determination is there, you get the assists that show Green is still an elite playmaker in his prime. Look no further than this dime on Moses Moody’s target, while Green is completely covered by the defense.

It’s one of those passes that only a handful of players have the vision and IQ to see, let alone make. That’s why Greene called himself a great passer, with an expletive as a descriptor.

But when Green isn’t on his A-game, the Warriors suffer. These turnovers come at critical moments in close games. Eight of Green’s 13 turnovers in the last two games have come in the second half. And the Warriors lost those games by one or two possessions.

It’s not even a fact that teams are penalized for losing points. The Warriors’ transition defense is actually one of the better in the NBA, allowing just 1.8 points per transition possession, which ranks 14th in the NBA. That’s how these turnovers keep the Warriors from even getting a shot. These turnovers rob the Warriors of opportunities. That hurts an offense that is already struggling, as it ranks 21st in offensive rating.

Whatever ails Green’s pass, whether it’s underwhelming or too much, the Warriors need their playmaker to turn it around.

According to Glass cleaningGreen has a 25.8% turnover percentage, which ranks in the bottom 3rd of players at his position. Basically, a quarter of all possessions used by Green, who has a 19.6% usage rate, result in turnovers. It is unsustainable.

Green is more than capable of cleaning it up. He has the pedigree to do it and the self-awareness to self-correct. But with the Warriors treading water at 13-15, that switch will have to be flipped quickly.