Bold Buccaneers vs. Dolphins predictions for Week 17 matchup

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins meet in a critical Week 17 matchup on Sunday, December 28, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with the Buccaneers desperate for momentum in the final stretch while the Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs. The Buccaneers, despite recent struggles, enter as 5.5-point favorites at 7-8, while the Dolphins are 6-9 and in transition at quarterback after the shocking benching of Tua Tagovailoa. This game represents much more than a late-season division clash—it’s a defining moment for two franchises headed in opposite directions.

The background of this match reveals two teams in completely different positions. Tampa Bay once looked playoff-ready after starting 6-2, but has since gone 1-6 on a streak that has fans questioning everything about this roster. Miami, meanwhile, went through a running back revolution, turning into a seventh-round rookie Quinn Evers to breathe fresh life into an offense that has been sputtering all season. The stage is set for an intriguing divisional showdown that could reshape the playoff picture.

Baker Mayfield He will take advantage of a vulnerable Dolphins secondary and a record three plus touchdown passes

Baker Mayfield enters Week 17 on a mission to prove the Buccaneers’ quarterback situation is still viable despite their recent offensive struggles. During the 2025 season, Mayfield collected 23 touchdown passes against just 8 interceptions, posting a 90.0 passer rating in 15 games while completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 3,144 yards. His most effective performances came in home starts, most notably in Week 5 against Seattle when he torched the Seahawks for 379 passing yards and two touchdowns with a clean 87.9% completion rate.​​

The Dolphins’ secondary, hobbled by defensive inconsistencies all season, is an ideal target for Mayfield’s rhythm-based passing attack. Miami has allowed a 71.49% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks — the worst mark in the NFL — and struggles significantly against vertical spacing and time-based route concepts. With Mike Evans back and hungry to make an impact, and with Chris Godwin back at full strength and new rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuk providing more receiving options, Mayfield will find plenty of opportunities to dissect the Dolphins’ weaknesses in defensive coverage.​​

Look for Mayfield to convert early critical drives into touchdown passes instead of settling for field goals. The Buccaneers’ red zone field goal percentage is 54.55%, which suggests they leave points on the field in short yardage situations. Against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered multiple explosive plays throughout the season, expect Mayfield to be decisive early and hit Evans multiple times down the stretch. Mayfield should surpass his season average of three-plus touchdown passes as Tampa Bay’s offense finds its rhythm against Miami’s soft secondary coverage.​​

Mike Evans will return to form with over 130 receiving yards and a touchdown despite recent limitations

The return of Mike Evans after a two-week, six-game absence with injury signaled a dramatic change in the Buccaneers’ offensive arsenal. In his first game against Atlanta, the Hall of Fame receiver hauled in six catches on 12 targets for 132 yards despite playing just 55% snaps. That performance wasn’t just a stat line — it was a statement that Evans remains the clear focal point of Tampa Bay’s passing game when healthy.​​

Mike Evans 6 REC, 132 IDS vs. ATL tonight.

Welcome back Mike.pic.tvitter.com/UKSIhMVvfFk https://t.co/vccevbUtKs6

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) December 12, 2025

Heading into the 2025 season in limited action, Evans has recorded 25 receptions for 303 yards and two touchdowns in six games, but more importantly, Mayfield has targeted him on an astounding 35% of his pass attempts over the past two weeks. This target distribution underscores exactly how center Evans is becoming as a forward as the Buccaneers go through their long late-season streak.​​

The Dolphins’ secondary, especially their outside linebacker coverage and safety rotation, have shown vulnerability all season long. Miami just allowed the Bengals to catch 13 passes for 183 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 16. Evans, with his size, athleticism and ability to win contested catches in the red zone, presents a nightmare matchup against the Dolphins secondary. His return should be seen as the catalyst the Buccaneers needed to spark their stagnant offense. Evans should get back on track after the Carolina game and top 130 receiving yards and find the end zone at least once, as the Buccaneers put him at the center of their offensive game plan.

Quinn Evers will struggle under pressure and throw two-plus interceptions in his second NFL start

Quinn Evers’ NFL debut against Cincinnati last week painted a troubling picture for Dolphins fans looking for immediate quarterback salvation. In his first career start, the seventh-round rookie completed 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards, but threw two costly interceptions while posting a poor 66.0 passer rating. While McDaniel expressed measured optimism about Evers’ ability to manage the position, the reality is far more complex: Evers faces a Tampa Bay defense that, while ranked 30th in defensive efficiency, has shown an uncanny ability to generate turnovers despite their general inconsistency.​​

Evers’ core weakness — accuracy under duress and decision-making against cover coverage — is directly aligned with Tampa Bay’s defensive strengths. The Buccaneers racked up 35 sacks during the regular season and excelled at creating pressure situations that force young quarterbacks into bad decisions. Evers will face a Miami offensive line that has provided inconsistent coverage all season, especially against the pressure scheme of Tampa Bay’s interior defensive line.​​

A rookie’s struggles will be exacerbated when faced with secondary and long situations that require him to venture outside of his primary read. Defensive coaches who have studied Evers in depth note that he lacks the processing speed to function effectively when his first read is completed. Against the Buccaneers’ defensive approach—which emphasizes zone-based pressure and stealth coverage—expect Evers to force multiple bad decisions. Bold Prediction: Evers throws at least two interceptions as the Buccaneers’ defense consistently generates disruptive pressure, forcing the rookie into turnover-worthy situations that ultimately define the outcome of the game.​​