Looking back at the Cubs’ biggest surprise of 2025

The Chicago Cubs entered 2025 with high expectations after a daring offseason that represented blockbuster acquisition of Kyle Tucker and the front office’s commitment to breaking into the National League Central. However, as the season progressed, the team’s performance in one area became the most surprising and defining factor in their return to the postseason: the incredible resilience and success of a patchwork bench that no one expected.

The Pete Crowe-Armstrong phenomenon

The most exciting development of the season was the transformation of Pete Crowe-Armstrong into an MVP-caliber player, while the bullpen shocked with his sheer skill on a shoestring budget. The young center fielder was a speed threat and defensive virtuoso in 2025, but no one expected the offensive explosion that followed.

Crowe-Armstrong entered 2025 with a career batting line of just .228/.282/.370 and 10 home runs in 136 games. Before being called up, this player had just 11 home runs in 60 games at Triple-A. However, by the middle of the season, he had undergone an almost imaginative transformation. Crowe-Armstrong revealed raw power he had never shown before by working on stance changes, such as going further into the batter’s box and repositioning his front legs to increase vision.

He was the best speed threat the Cubs ever had until the All-Star break. Before the break, he had 23 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He ranked fourth in the National League in home runs and seventh in slugging percentage. He actually led the National League in WAR in half, outhitting Juan Soto and even Shohei Ohtani, proving the validity of his MVP candidacy.

Crowe-Armstrong is further elevated by his defensive skills in addition to his offensive stats. In the range component of defensive runs, he was the best center on the field. 89 of 103 balls hit deep to center field were saved and caught, the highest percentage in baseball for deep center balls — eight more than expected. Among position players, his 1.7 Defensive VAR was nearly three times that of his closest peers. A team in dire need of a homegrown superstar was buoyed by a player profile created by a combination of new strength, elite speed, outstanding defense and youthful energy.

A bullpen no one believed in

When the Cubs assembled their relief corps in the offseason, they made a striking decision that generated a lot of attention in more than just the baseball fraternity. Instead of going all out for elite closers like Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams or Robert Suarez, a trio that command a combined average annual value of $55 million, the Cubs went the cheap, high-risk portfolio route. They signed Brad Keller to a minor league contract, got Drew Pomeranz after he hasn’t played since 2021 and counted on Daniel Palencia, a pre-arbitration reliever who wasn’t expected to be the team’s closer.

The betting world scoffed. The strategy has been questioned by baseball analysts. However, the Cubs’ bullpen finished the season with a 3.78 ERA, which was 11th in baseball — a remarkable feat considering the caliber of arms employed. Examining who was actually throwing the innings made that impressive statistic even more impressive. On a $1.5 million minor league contract, Keller pitched 69.2 innings with a 2.07 ERA. Pomeranz, the forgotten comeback man, earned $1.3 million with a 2.17 ERA in 49.2 innings. Caleb Thielbar contributed with a 2.64 ERA after re-signing a modest contract.

But Palencia was the source of true revelation. The plan changed completely when Porter Hodge, the Cubs’ long-awaited 2024 rookie with a stellar 1.88 ERA, took over in the ninth inning. It was meant to be an in-depth piece. Hodge missed time with an oblique injury and had an ugly 6.27 ERA, which ultimately rendered him useless for the remainder of the season. Palencia, on the other hand, took advantage of the situation and, despite an ugly 1-6 record that masked his effectiveness, posted a 2.91 ERA with 22 saves in 25 opportunities. He became an unlikely pillar of Chicago’s postseason hopes, and his 3.08 FIP more accurately represented his true value.

The future and reality of the postseason

The Cubs’ 2025 campaign illustrated the conflict between unexpected greatness and postseason limitations. They won their division for the first time since 2019 and earned a Wild Card berth with a 92-70 record. The team carried genuine hopes of winning the World Series in October after posting its best record since 2016.

But the postseason hasn’t been so forgiving. The Cubs lost to the Milwaukee Brewers in a close five-game series, despite going 4-4 ​​in both the Wild Card Series and the NLDS. Injuries limited Kyle Tucker’s availability and impact down the stretch, but he delivered in moments, including strong playoff moments. Meanwhile, Crowe-Armstrong’s second-half slump was reflective of a wider September slump that raised concerns about mental exhaustion and sustainability.

Undoubtedly, the 2025 Cubs have laid an unexpected foundation. The bullpen’s economic success overturned preconceived notions in the industry regarding the construction of a relief pitcher. Although Crowe-Armstrong didn’t quite make the 30-30-20 (Defensive Runs Saved) club that only Brent Rucker had in baseball’s modern era, his rise indicated a superstar in the making.

Despite the lack of ultimate goals, the season exceeded initial expectations thanks to these surprises, one of which humbled the financial orthodoxy of the game and the other showed the organic development of the players. 2025 served as a guide and a reminder that baseball’s biggest surprises often come from the unlikeliest of places for a team looking for its next championship run.