How the Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson issue complicates the future amid the NBA title race

The New York Knicks are on a streak lately, 7-3 in their last 10 games. Those 10 games include a comeback win on Christmas Day against the Cleveland Cavaliersas well as win the 2026 NBA Cup over the San Antonio Spurs.

Furthermore, head coach Mike Brown has been rotating the depth of his team, getting contributions from almost everyone, including Kevin McCullar Jr. and Mohamed Diawara. But there remains one problem that must be solved before the 2026 free agency – i possibly before the end of the trade deadline in a few weeks, and that includes Mitchell Robinson.

Robinson is currently the team’s only true center. And he’s easily the team’s best defender on the front line. Moves his feet well and disrupts shots at the rim. And more importantly, he’s arguably the best offensive rebounder in the entire league, averaging 4.7 offensive boards in just 18.5 minutes per game. That translates to an incredible 9.1 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes.

Robinson has grown slowly after going down in the first four games of the season. New York is 14-7 in games Robinson has played in this season. Admittedly, they played well without him, but those games were mostly against the weaker teams in the league.

How can the Knicks approach Mitchell Robinson’s free agency?

The problem is that Robinson, New York’s longest-tenured player, will enter unrestricted free agency after this season. And that presents a big challenge for the team’s front office given how difficult it is to assess his value.

While Robinson’s value is obvious, as evidenced by his tremendous impact when available. His availability has been an issue for one reason or another for most of his career. Robinson appeared in just 17 games last season and 31 games in 2023-24. In fact, the eight-year veteran has only appeared in 70 or more games in a season once during his NBA career.

Brown has been cautious with Robinson so far this season. Robinson has only logged 20 or more minutes on four different occasions so far. And while caution is wise given Robinson’s injury history, Robinson could also misinterpret it as a way to artificially suppress his value.

Mitchell Robinson’s extension could put the Knicks in a bad spot

Still, New York would be wise to ask for an extension. The terrifying (and incredibly restrictive) second apron is projected to bring in about $222 million for the 2026-27 season. The Knicks appear to have $203 million in salary commitments—and that’s before Robinson’s extension is factored in. They can make another $4 million or so by moving Pacome Dadiet, if needed.

As it stands, New York will have about $19 million to sign Robinson. That doesn’t take into account new deals for Diavara, Ariel Hookporty, Jordan Clarkson and Landry Shamet. It also doesn’t take into account their 2026 draft picks. So that number could be a few million lower.

Robinson’s contract is difficult to predict. He is incredibly impressive when available, but his availability remains a question. From Robinson’s perspective, his former teammate Isaiah Hartenstein signed a $28.5 million-a-year deal a few seasons ago when he left the Knicks.

In addition, Nick Claxton (Brooklyn Nets) will earn more than $20 million per year, and Jarrett Allen (Cleveland Cavaliers) will earn $28 million next season. But the question is: is anyone offering him $20 million or more? And will the Knicks match up if they do?

The Los Angeles Lakers will only have about $106 million on the books for the 2026-27 season. They are a logical team that could show interest. In fact, eight teams are projected to have less than $150 million in salary commitments. So interest shouldn’t be a huge problem for Robinson and there are few (if any) centers ready to hit unrestricted free agency who are as effective as Robinson, hence the Knicks dilemma.

Mitchell Robinson’s free agency decision could affect title aspirations

Ultimately, New York must decide what they want and how much they’re willing to pay — if they haven’t already. But what they do will inevitably have major consequences.

First, the Knicks are already set up to be subject to the luxury tax so they won’t be able to add a trade player at a similar price. In other words, Robinson’s salary is very much use it or lose it, where they can either re-sign him or move on without the ability to trade him.

Additionally, the Knicks are pretty clearly better with Robinson. In the playoffs alone over the past two years, they are 14-10 when he has played and just 3-4 when he hasn’t.

Those factoids support the idea of ​​re-signing him. So, barring a trade offer that excites the Knicks, it appears to be in the team’s best interest if they keep Robinson, regardless of what it does to their salary cap and subsequent maneuverability.

Of course, the second apron is very restrictive, removing the ability to use the mid-level exception, pooling multiple players in trades, sending money in trades, etc. But the team’s title window is now. We hope management understands the urgency needed to win, and we hope they take advantage of that.