The Caleb Williams-Cole Kmet miracle TD against the Rams was insanely unlikely

The Chicago Bears has thrived on late-game comebacks all season, and after arguably one of the greatest hits in Chicago history Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round, another comeback seemed inevitable before Los Angeles escaped with a 20-17 lead in overtime.

Down 17-10 with just 18 seconds left, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams created a moment that defied the oddsfinding a tight end Cole Farmer in the end zone on fourth-and-4 from the Rams’ 14-yard line to tie the game and force overtime.

Williams’ pitching was outstanding by the numbers. He pulled away under heavy pressure, scrambling backwards from the 40-yard line, and launched a pass that traveled 51.2 yards through the air to the back corner of the end zone, the longest pass by air distance in the red zone since 2016. completion probability of only 17.8%according to NFL Next Gen Statistics.

Kmet broke away from his defender and secured the reception, capping another dramatic fourth-quarter comeback in a season that saw Chicago win seven games in the final minutes, the most by any NFL team since at least 1970.

The Bears won the toss at first, but were forced to punt after a three-and-out. Williams kept the drive alive with a 3-yard quarterback run on fourth-and-1, but Los Angeles safety Cam Karl intercepted a pass intended for Chicago quarterback DJ Moore at the Rams’ 22-yard line. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford then moved the Rams into field goal range, and Harrison Mavis, nicknamed “The Fat Kicker,” converted a 42-yard field goal to end the game.

Williams finished with 23 catches on 42 attempts for 257 yards, two touchdowns and a career-high three interceptions, giving him a 59.3 passer rating. Meanwhile, Stafford completed 20 of 42 passes for 258 yards with a 67.4 passer rating.

Despite racking up 417 total yards, the Bears only scored 17 points, their third-lowest performance of the season. Chicago’s defense held the NFL’s top-scoring team largely in check for most of the game, allowing just two touchdowns after Los Angeles’ opening drive and forcing three fumbles with just two first downs on back-to-back drives.

Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, the Bears won the NFC North title for the first time since 2018 with an 11-6 record.