What solutions if the NBA really wants to put an end to “tanking”?

Mark Cuban believes that “refueling” is not the main problem of the NBA right now, reminding us that Major League franchises can ultimately “sell” their fans only two things, a title or hope. In the context of a closed league, voluntary shedding to regain tomorrow’s talent is a proven strategy in the past, despite all the adjustments over time…

This is the owner’s point of view, but it must be remembered that only 26% of income NBA come from the box office. Most of the Major League’s revenue comes from its local, national and now international TV contracts, and the social experience that Mark Cuban touts is not the financial heart of the system.

As far as its broadcasters and global fans are concerned, the NBA has every interest in ensuring that its stars play as many games as possible and are not left in the fridge from February onwards.

“In the past there was a kind of implicit agreement between partners about the behavior to be had”he just explained Adam Silver after the penalties imposed on the Jazz and Pacers. “I think what we are seeing today are the effects of modern statistical analysis, which clearly shows that the ‘rewards’ are out of sync. (…) Are we seeing worse behavior this year than we have seen in recent times? Yes, in my opinion. That is what led to these penalties, and not only these penalties, but also my statement that we will take a closer look at the situation the team is in this season, I wanted to take a closer look at the situation and the situation in the team. be informed.

And it seems that the “commissioner” is ready to initiate deep reforms to stop this behavior.

“If teams are manipulating their performance in order to get a higher draft pick, even in the ‘lottery,’ then the question is … are they really the worst performing teams?” continued Adam Silver. “It doesn’t seem obvious to me, for example, that the No. 30 team is objectively much weaker than the No. 22 team, especially if you have an incentive to play poorly to get a better draft pick. That’s a real headache. Like I said, the All-Star Game has been going on for 75 years. The league is 80 years old to see this is a fresh way of doing things.

The fact remains that concrete solutions must be found after declarations of intent and, although there is no shortage of ideas, none offer a solution that combines efficiency, feasibility and simplicity.

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS

– Strengthen sanctions against “tanking”. More investigations into teams resting their best players, greater financial sanctions… all the way up to the possible withdrawal of a draft pick? This is the simplest solution, although it may not be the most efficient. As Utah owners’ reactions illustrate, financial sanctions are not enough to deter managers if they allow them to get their hands on “generational” talent that can change the entire dynamic of a franchise.

– Further reduce the chances of getting the best picks. The NBA has already smoothed out the likelihood of the top picks returning, to prevent clubs from engaging in a major lottery contest to get the worst record, and therefore the best chance to hit the jackpot. By further equalizing the odds, the Major Leagues would further reduce their interest in being the worst team…but not one of the worst teams.

– Ban the top 4 two years in a row. Even the best drafts have only two or three talents that scouts consider “generational” and that everyone wants to “tank” for. Taking a team from a Top 4 draft pick two years in a row would undoubtedly dampen the enthusiasm of clubs who would want to bet on two very high draft picks two years in a row. The problem: this can legitimately deprive really bad teams of reinforcements, which is the goal Adam Silver is looking for…

– Limit and simplify draft selection protection. Some teams find themselves in a “dip” because their draft picks are promised to other clubs, after a trade, if they are not below a certain spot. For these franchises, these protections become de facto incentives to lose when the start of the season doesn’t go as expected. Limiting and simplifying the protection of draft choices during exchange could therefore allow limiting this type of situation, even if it does not change the core of the system.

INTERNATIONAL SOLUTIONS

– A tournament between teams that did not qualify for the playoffs. Some suggest a tournament between teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. This would offer high-stakes matches, even at the bottom of the rankings. The problem: This could encourage losses very early in the season, and the organizational arrangements would add matchups, especially since not all teams are eliminated from the playoff race at the same time. In practice this seems unrealistic.

– Les «Tombstone Vince». It’s been a long time that some propose a solution (which has variations) of the fact that draft picks are awarded to teams based on the number of wins they have achieved…after their elimination from the playoffs. So, if a team is no longer able to play in the “postseason” with 15 games remaining, we count the number of wins it records in these remaining games and compare it to the identical wins of clubs eliminated from the playoffs. The pros are that it doesn’t change anything in the season schedule and pushes the worst teams to play their last few games to the max. The problem is that this moves “tanking” because clubs will have an interest in being eliminated from the race for the playoffs as soon as possible.

– Freeze the ranking at a given moment in the season. For others, the solution is to “freeze” the probabilities of getting the top picks relative to the standings during the season, such as when the top team is eliminated from the playoff race. Franchises would therefore no longer have any interest in dropping the last few matches even if, again, the risk is simply a “tanking” shift.

RADICAL SOLUTIONS

– Prevent the three worst teams from participating in the “lottery”. This is a solution suggested by Mark Cuban. The three worst results would be excluded from the “lottery”. Enough to seriously chill teams planning to miss seasons, even if we end up in the same situation as Top 4 bans two years in a row, with really weak teams that couldn’t step up.

– La «Draft Wheel». Celtics Assistant GM, Mike Zarren suggested A few years ago, a radical solution to put an end to “tanking”, the point of the draft where the distribution of picks does not depend on the ranking of the teams. It can still be a “lottery”, but within the pre-defined part of the Draft. Obviously, this eliminates any incentive to lose… even if we lose the primary point of the draft, which is to strengthen the weakest teams, since the championship team could regain the first pick in the process.

– Clean and simple draft elimination. This is the most radical solution. Purely and simply by eliminating the “lottery” and the draft, the NBA could organize the arrival of young talent in the form of another “free agency”. Teams could then negotiate with young stars from the NCAA or elsewhere. Obviously, we imagine the worst teams could offer more, but the No. 1 draft pick could commit wherever he wants, even if it means joining the reigning champions on the condition that he accept a weaker contract. It is obvious that the solution has very little chance of being confirmed by the owners’ council because the large markets would have too many advantages in this system and the competitive balance would be difficult to achieve.