A fatal flaw for Michigan basketball that will cost them the Big Ten Conference title race

One game aside, Michigan was nearly flawless in the 2025-2026 college basketball season, putting them in position to enter the annual Big Ten Tournament as the No. 1 seed. Dusty Mai’s lightning-quick rehab program has seemingly reached its peak, but the Wolverines’ job isn’t done yet.

Considering his workload, Michigan has likely done enough to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, even if it loses in the Big Ten Tournament. But at this point in the season, given how dominant the Wolverines have been, ending the year without a conference title would be a disappointment.

Michigan’s vast improvement can make it easy to forget that the Wolverines are actually the defending Big Ten Tournament champions. May’s inaugural side were underwhelming at times in the regular season, but the 49-year-old head coach proved he was made for March.

Regardless of how the regular season ends, Michigan is poised to enter the 2026 Big Ten Tournament as a favorite. It won’t be a wild ride, as Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois will present significant challenges, but May will be favored to start his tenure with back-to-back conference titles.

It will take a near Herculean effort to stop Michigan’s momentum in the Big Ten Tournament, but the Wolverines are far from unbeatable. Their lone loss, a 91-88 back-to-back battle against Wisconsin at home, set the blueprint for how the teams could beat the Big Ten’s top seed in the postseason.

Dusty Mai has built the most well-rounded team

Michigan is arguably the most well-rounded team on paper, leading to its No. 1 overall pick on KenPom. The Wolverines have the fifth-best offensive rating on the prestigious college basketball site and the best defensive rating in Division I.

Dusty May’s offense is a well-oiled machine, relying on no single player to lead the team on both ends of the court. Michigan is the deepest team in the country by a wide margin, with six players averaging over nine points per game and eight of the nine rotation players averaging at least 7.7 points per game. Their top four bench players would be key starters at almost any other top-25 program.

Jaksel Landeborg leads the Wolverines with 14.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, but almost all of his points come from the offensive flow and rarely from isolations. On any given night, Landeborg can look like the best player in college basketball, but Michigan is just as likely to be led by Elliot Caddo, Adei Mara, Morez Johnson Jr., Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gale Jr. or Leigh Cason.

On the other hand, Michigan’s lockdown defense prides itself on making life difficult inside with its elite frontcourt lineup. Landeborg and Mara are those two top rated defenders in college basketball, according to EvanMiia. Johnson is also seventh, giving them three of the top 10 defenders in the game, each of whom excels in protecting the paint.

The lack of a dominant isolation scorer could hurt Michigan down the stretch, but it has been able to grind through tough games without that element. Instead, the Wolverines’ biggest problem comes on defense.

Teams can beat Michigan from deep

Michigan has no defensive weaknesses per se, but whenever teams hurt it, that pain comes from behind the arc. While the Wolverines’ three-point defense remains elite, allowing opponents to hit just 29.3 percent of their long-range attempts, they allow a lot of shots from distance. Teams attempt 27.3 3-pointers per game, 342nd nationally.

Teams will get 3-pointers against Michigan, but struggle to convert. However, if they find a rhythm, that threat could trouble the Wolverines, who allowed Wisconsin to hit 15 3-pointers in their only loss of the year to date.

Wisconsin’s top two scorers, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, led the upset, but the Badgers wouldn’t leave Ann Arbor with a milestone without Aleksas Bieliauskas. The rookie forward is averaging just 4.5 points per game, but scored a career-high 17 points against the best team in the country, including an absurd 5-for-10 from deep. Bieliauskas was in double figures in just two other games this season.

Bieliauskas had the game of his life and allowed Michigan center Aday Maru to fit into pick-and-pop sets. Mara, while an elite defender in the paint, struggled to get outside, giving Bieliauskas plenty of open looks.

If another team is to pull off the same feat, it will need another semi-successful performance from an unheralded star.

Wisconsin had a perfect game against Michigan, but still came away with a three-point win. The next team to beat the Wolverines will have to create a similar perfect storm focused on heating up from three-point range.

While not necessarily a fatal flaw, if another Big Ten team beats Michigan in the 2025-2026 college basketball season, it will come from their long run of success.