Alec Perez vs. Asu Almabayev forecast, odds, selection for UFC Qatar

UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker heats up as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for the next flyweight (125) bout. no. 7 Alec Perez California will play No. 8 Kazakhstan Asu Almabayev in a top 10 competitive match. Check out our UFC odds series for prediction and selection of Perez-Almabaev.

Alex Perez (25-9) is 7-5 in the UFC since 2017. He is 1-4 in his last five fights against current and former champions, but has only had so many appearances since 2020. After numerous cancellations, he will look to find his rhythm again with a win here. Perez is 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.

Asu Almabayev (22-3) has gone 5-1 in the UFC since 2023. After suffering his first promotional loss to Manelo Cape, he bounced back with a strong unanimous decision victory over Jose Ochoa in his last time out. He will look to stay confident and jump up the rankings as the betting favourite. Almabayev is 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach.

Here they are UFC Qatar oddscourtesy of DraftKings.

UFC Qatar odds: Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev odds

Alex Perez: +160

Location Almabayev: -192

Over 2.5 rounds: -200

Up to 2.5 rounds: +154

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Why Alex Perez Will Wynn

• Last fight: (L) Tatsuro Taira – TKO (knee injury, R2)
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finish: 6 KO/TKO, 7 SAT

Alex Perez has been tasked with facing top-5 level competition ever since his title challenge against Deiveson Figueiredo in 2020. Since then, Perez has had to pull out of numerous fights due to health issues. Things took a turn for the worse in his last fight against Tatsura Taira when he suffered a significant knee injury, sidelining him for over a year. He’ll bounce back in this fight, barring any setbacks in his quest to finally get back on that winning streak he’s been searching for.

Perez is well rounded in all areas of the fight and remains consistent through all three rounds. He is much more active with his significant shots per minute (4.19) versus Almabay (2.16), and his shot defense is more consistent at 58% compared to Almabay’s 52%. His takedown defense is also a very impressive 77% and Almabayev will certainly have a hard time taking him down.

Alex Perez should have a great chance as the underdog in this fight if he can feel confident when he takes a knee. Defending the takedown and staying heavy on his lower half will be a constant theme throughout this fight, so Perez will need to be comfortable moving explosively on that knee.

Why Asu Almabayev? Will Wynn

• Last Fight: (V) Jose Ochoa – IN DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 9 HOURS

Asu Almabaev has been very consistent in his own right, winning four of his six UFC appearances by unanimous decision. While still developing as a reliable striker, Almabayev is a suffocating player and finds most of his success in controlling opponents on the ground. This is certainly the toughest opponent he has had to face in his career, so he will have to dig deep to earn this win if he wants to prove himself among the other top ranked fighters.

Almabaev doesn’t necessarily hit at high speed, but he manages to land 54% of the significant shots he lands. Against a steady striker like Perez, these strikes will prove crucial as Almabayev looks to wear his opponent down. From there, once he’s able to establish himself on offense, Almabayev relentlessly searches his jabs and manages to land 43% of them, a solid rate considering he’s attempting almost five per fight.

However, given Perez’s strong takedown defense, Almabayev may have to resort to using more of his striking game. Still, he has athleticism on his side and should be able to force Perez into a bad situation or two on the ground, so look for him to take advantage of those moments where he’s able to show off his grappling.

Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev final Prediction and selection

Both fighters want to prove themselves as a contender and the odds should be a little closer in my opinion. Alex Perez has experience against former champions and all the necessary tools to win this fight, but it will all depend on his knee and whether he can move on it.

Asu Almabayev, on the other hand, will have the toughest test of his career and will have to show his best performance yet in the striking department. He’s had trouble finishing fights in the past, but the best version of Almabayev can easily control this fight over three rounds.

For our final betting prediction, we’ll play Asu Almabaev to get the scoreboard win. Alex Perez will put in an extremely tough effort, but in the end it’s Almabayev who ends each round in solid ground position and wins a razor-thin decision.

Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev final Prediction and selection: Asu Almabayev (-192); OVER 2.5 rounds (-200)