Chargers odds for AFC No. 1 seed ahead of massive showdown with Texans

The Los Angeles Chargers are on the bench. While they didn’t play perfect football during their 4-game winning streak heading into Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans, they did enough to secure wins over the Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys.

The win over the Eagles was the only shock in the group, and it showed courage Chargers teams they were missing for years. Jim HarbaughThe team is clearly an aggressive group of fighters and while mistakes will happen at various times throughout the game, the Chargers fight back almost every time they make a mistake.

The Chargers (11-4) have already clinched a playoff spot in the AFC playoffs. They are trying to find the No. 1 seed in both the AFC West and the AFC postseason standings. The Denver Broncos (13-3) have the inside track on both, but the Chargers have a chance to steal the No. 1 seed from the Broncos and potentially steal the top seed in the conference from Denver and the New England Patriots (12-3).

The odds are not in their favor. The Broncos have a 55.2 percent chance (for TWO) of first place in the AFC and a 79.5 percent chance of winning the AFC West title. The Patriots are trying to hold off the Buffalo Bills (11-4) in the AFC East and their chances of winning first place in the AFC are 31.2 percent. The Chargers have just a 2.6 percent chance to clinch the No. 1 seed and bow out in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs.

The Chargers can steal the division title

Despite those numbers, the Chargers they have the opportunity to determine their own destiny in the division. They will need help to take over the top seed in the AFC and it seems highly unlikely that the surging Patriots will lose to the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins in Week 18. If the Patriots beat both of those teams, the Chargers can’t get past them.

But if the Chargers can beat the Houston Texans at home and close out the regular season with a triumph over the Broncos in the Mile High City, quarterback Justin Herbert and his teammates will steal the AFC West crown.

If that scenario plays out, both the Chargers and Broncos would finish the season with 13-4 records. The Chargers would win the division title based on their 2-0 record against Denver. The Chargers beat the Broncos 23-20 in Week 3.

The odds seem somewhat low even though the Chargers’ fate is in their own hands. This is because the schedule is so challenging. The Texans (10-5) are the hottest team in the NFL with a 7-game winning streak and their defense has been dominant. If the Chargers are going to survive the Texans, they have to beat one of the best teams in the NFL on their home field.

The Chargers have the key players to get the job done

The Chargers depend on Harbaugh to prepare the team mentally and emotionally for big games because he combines the enthusiasm and confidence of a college coach with his talent for putting together a solid game plan.

Those characteristics will take the team so far. But there is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Herbert combines brilliant talent, size and desire to lead the team. He completed 319 of 480 passes for 3,491 yards with 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Herbert was battered and bruised all season and played with injuries. He ran for 461 yards and 2 TDs and was also sacked 49 times for 266 yards in losses.

The Chargers have depended on their running game and have a pair of strong running backs in Kimani Vidal and rookie Omarion Hampton. Vidal is battling a neck injury and is questionable to play against the Texans, but his status improved during the week.

Vidal rushed for 631 yards while averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns. Hampton gained 516 yards, averaged 4.7 yards per attempt and scored 3 TDs.

Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are Herbert’s two leading receivers. McConkey has caught 65 passes for 758 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Allen is 73-724-4. Herbert knows Allen will make the play when the Chargers face a crucial 3rd-down situation. The veteran receiver converted 46 of his receptions into first downs.

The Chargers defense has once again gotten the job done this season. The Chargers rank 4th in yards allowed as they have given up an average of 272.3 yards per game this season. Linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu has been their most impactful player as he leads the team with 13.0 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, along with 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery.