Current NCAA Tournament Odds, Road to the Dance

Many did not see Texas as March Madness team at the start of the 2025-2026 college basketball season, but timely wins at key moments have him on the NCAA Tournament bubble at the end of February. At the end of an up-and-down season, the Longhorns’ tournament hopes could hinge on their performance in the SEC Tournament.

Texas’ failure to make the 68-team tournament a year after firing Rodney Terry would be nothing short of ironic. The The Longhorns traded Terry for Sean Miller after failing to win in March, but now find themselves in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2020.

Miller appeared to be completely out of the conversation in January after starting 2-4 in conference play. However, Texas took advantage of a weak spot in their schedule to put together a five-game winning streak to get their season back on track.

Texas is still in the conversation, but back-to-back losses to Georgia and Florida leave it with an 18-11 record entering March. The Longhorns are 9-7 in SEC play, good for ninth in the conference.

Texas’ record is unattractive, but it is respectable 5-8 rating against Quad 1 opponents bolster their March Madness resume. The Longhorns just have to hope the selection committee respects the SEC’s strength of schedule enough to give the conference at least nine NCAA Tournament bids.

Although Texas is turning it on at the right time, Miller will need more from his team to make another March Madness run. The Longhorns will only find themselves in tough matchups the rest of the way.

Texas odds for March Madness

Texas’ win over Texas A&M raised hopes for March Madness, but the Longhorns still need a prayer, and odds suggest Miller will miss the Big Dance in his first year in Austin.

Texas has a 62.1 percent chance NCAA Tournament appearance, according to TeamRankings, giving him a 1.6 percent chance to earn an automatic bid with a win in the SEC Tournament and a 0.7 percent chance to reach the Final Four. The analytics site projects the Longhorns to be the No. 11 seed in March.

ESPN college basketball analyst Joe Lunardi projects Texas one seed higher than the No. 10 seed. Lunardi lists Miller’s team as one of his “final four bye” teams, along with Georgia, Missouri and Texas A&M.

The Longhorns have no odds listed by any bookmaker to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament.

The road to the big dance

Texas has one trip back to March Madness, and it requires it to impress in the SEC Tournament in 2026. The Longhorns will likely finish the regular season with fewer than 20 wins, forcing them to show up in Nashville if they want a postseason bid.

After a win over Texas A&M, Texas hits the road to face No. 20 Arkansas, the last ranked opponent in the regular season. While the match presents them with one last chance for Quad 1, The Razorbacks have lost just once at home.

Texas’ final game of the 2025-2026 college basketball regular season is at home against Oklahoma on March 7. Win or lose against Arkansas, the Longhorns must beat the struggling Sooners if they want to keep any remaining tournament hopes alive.

Oklahoma enters March on a two-game winning streak, but is still just 5-11 in the SEC and 4-11 in its last 15 games. While the Sooners are no upsets, another loss to an unranked foe would virtually shut the door on Texas’ March Madness.

But even at 3-0 at the end of the regular season, Texas can’t feel safe heading into Selection Week without another win in the SEC Tournament. The ninth-ranked Longhorns tend to start the tournament on Day 1 and will likely have to survive until at least Day 3. Without that, the best Miller can hope for is a top four matchup.