ESPN insider predicts Dallas will miss the playoffs

The Dallas Mavericks face skepticism again as the 2025–26 NBA season approaches.ESPNis Tim Bontemps predicts that the team will miss the playoffs. That analysis is coming despite Dallas adding a rookie sensation Cooper Flagg.

Bontemps quoted Mavericks’ defensive strugglesinconsistent shooting and uncertain roster chemistry as major red flags for the team. Overall, Bontempts notes, Dallas is also adjusting after trading a franchise icon Luka Dončić with the Los Angeles Lakers last season.

“The defense looked far from terrible,” Bontemps wrote, adding that the lack of perimeter creation remains a major problem in the loaded Western Conference.

Dallas’ offseason was headlined by acquiring the No. 1 overall pick and drafting Flagg. The former Duke standout is already drawing comparisons to young superstars. So there were already high hopes for Dallas. Moreover, the Mavericks also acquired Anthony Davis in the Doncic trade and brought in veteran guard D’Angelo Russell to stabilize the backfield while Kyrie Irving continues to recover from a torn ACL.

ESPN predicts a bleak future for the Mavericks

Even with those additions, ESPN’s latest forecast paints a bleak picture. The network’s analytics give Dallas just a 3.6 percent chance of securing a playoff spot and a 91.5 percent chance of missing the postseason entirely. The Mavericks’ chances of achieving home court advantage are zero percent.

While some analysts, including Gerald Burge of PHNX, believe Dallas could compete for a playoff spot if Davis stays healthy, most insiders agree the Mavericks’ fate hinges on Irving’s return. The veteran guard’s leadership and shot creation remain critical for a roster filled with unproven youth and injury-prone veterans.

Despite ESPN’s bleak projection, optimism still remains in Dallas. Flagg’s arrival has energized the fan base, and Davis expressed confidence that the team can exceed expectations. The Mavericks haven’t missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2019, and team executives insist the franchise’s young core can evolve faster than projections predict.

If Dallas can keep its stars healthy and find chemistry early, the Mavericks could once again prove their doubters wrong. But as it stands, ESPN’s prediction reflects a harsh reality: The Mavericks’ return to contention will be anything but easy.