Even with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, don’t count the Broncos out

Only two teams remain in the AFC this season, as the conference’s top two seeds will square off in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. A pair of 14-win teams will compete for the title on Sunday when the No. 2 seed New England Patriots go on the road to play the top seeds Denver Broncos.

The Pats and Broncos have been near the top of the AFC all season, so this matchup isn’t necessarily surprising. However, things look a lot different in this game after the Broncos quarterback Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle in Denver’s late divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills and will miss the rest of the playoffs. Jarrett Stidham is a backup and will start on Sunday.

On the flip side, the Patriots are comfortable winning their two playoff games despite a few inconsistent outings from their elite offense. Drake Maye has been putting the ball in danger, but New England’s defense has really stepped up in double-digit home wins over the Chargers and Texans.

With Stidham in the lineup, many fans and pundits are already counting the Broncos in this game. After all, the Patriots have enjoyed backup quarterbacks whenever they’ve faced them this season. However, Denver still has what it takes to play New England and get the job done to reach the Super Bowl.

Sean Payton excels with backup quarterbacks

Denver will have a hard time moving the ball against a Patriots defense that is playing its best football at the moment and giving up almost nothing on the field in these playoffs. Milton Williams is back in the middle along with Christian Barmore, and New England’s front is very scary as a result.

The drop in ratings, even if it’s not a huge chasm, from the Knicks to Steeds gives many people pause going into this game, but Sean Payton has always excelled as a head coach when his backups are forced to play. Teddy Bridgewater famously led the Saints to a 5-0 record during the 2019 season when Drew Brees was sidelined with injury, and both Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston also had winning records during their time in New Orleans under Payton.

While Stidham doesn’t have a ton of NFL experience, he’s still a very talented passer who can replicate a lot of what Nix can do with his arm. However, the Broncos will lose Nix’s ability to scramble and play outside the pocket, which has been a big part of their offense this season.

One thing Payton has always done very well throughout his career as a head coach is target tight ends. Going all the way back to his days with Jimmy Graham in New Orleans, that has always been a strength of Payton’s offense. While the Broncos don’t have a dominant force at the position, Evan Engram and Adam Troutman are still quality players.

Targeting tight ends has been the strength of this Broncos team so far this season, as Denver finished seventh in the NFL in EPA in punt returns according to Next Generation Statistics. That hasn’t been a major component of this Denver offense, but it could be something the Broncos use against this New England defense.

The Patriots have one of the the best cornerback duo in all of football in Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davisand they stifled the outside receivers in their lineup when both were healthy this season. However, the Patriots have struggled a bit with tight ends in 2025, ranking 24th in the NFL in EPA in punt returns allowed on those plays. Linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss are good against the run, but sometimes struggle in coverage, which could be something the Broncos can take advantage of.

Denver’s pass rush can dominate the other side of the ball

While the Broncos can still find enough answers to put up some points with Stidham at quarterback, Denver’s defense will be what has to carry the day and get past the Broncos in this game. If the Patriots can push this game into the 20s or low 30s, Denver feels like they have little chance to advance.

The Broncos have lived off their pass rush for most of this season, and should be able to do so again in this game. The regular season numbers were historic: a 40.7% pressure rate and a league-high 68 sacks. Denver’s pressure rate dropped a bit in the win over the Bills, but the Broncos still managed three sacks of Josh Allen and forced the star quarterback into four sets of turnovers.

Drake Maye might be the NFL’s MVP this season, but he’s still prone to taking sacks and throwing the ball on the ground, and this Patriots offensive line has lost its lumps over the past two weeks. He’s been sacked 10 times in the last two games, so there should be a chance for the Broncos to come home.

The matchup to watch will be whoever ends up matching rookie Will Campbell, whether it’s Nick Bonito or Jonathan Cooper. The top-five pick had a solid rookie season, but some of his pre-draft concerns came across as elite pass rushers. Campbell doesn’t have the prototypical frame of a franchise left tackle, and some of the more physically talented defensive ends have given him trouble.

That was on full display in the Divisional Round, when Will Anderson Jr. dominated Campbell en route to three sacks and two forced fumbles.

Bonitto is one of the fastest pass rushers in the entire NFL, and he has the type of bendy athleticism that makes it difficult for linemen to get into his box. For the Broncos to win on Sunday without the Knicks on the court, Bonito will need to make a huge impact, and this is a matchup where he can do just that.