Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds, Pick

The Golden State Warriors return home after four days of rest as they prepare to take on the 15-9 Minnesota Timberwolves at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Stephen Curry remains a doubt as he recovers from a quadriceps injury despite taking part in a full training session on Wednesday.

Minnesota had a five-game winning streak snapped by the Phoenix Suns and will be looking to quickly get back to winning ways. The odds for this one, according to DraftKings, suggest a close game that might as well go down to the wire.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors odds

Golden State Warriors (-1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5)

Over: 224.5 (-110)

Under: 224.5 (-110)

Key Injuries for Timberwolves vs. Warriors

For the Warriors, the team’s leading scorer (27.9 points) is out, which significantly affects their offense. However, that’s not the extent of the injuries they face:

Al Horford – Out (sciatica)

Draymond Green – Out (leg)

De’Anthony Melton – Questionable

Jimmy Butler – Probable (Injury Management)

Golden State is expecting a few additions soon, but according to the injury report for this matchup, several key pieces remain uncertain. The Timberwolves on the other hand have a more certain roster, without the major confirmed absences listed above.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors Betting Trends

The Warriors have played 15 games that have finished above 224.5 points. The Timberwolves have passed for 224.5 in 19 games (79.2%).
Opponents are scoring a combined 226.5 PPG against these teams. The Warriors are 9-6 as favorites, covering their last three spreads. The Timberwolves are 0-4 as underdogs, failing to cover their last four games despite being favored in each. In the last nine meetings between these teams, Minnesota leads 5-4.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors matchup keys

While more names from their injured list are expected to play, Stephen Curry’s status remains a factor of change. Even without him, Golden State played competitive basketball, relying on Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Cummings and defensive versatility to stay afloat.
Minnesota enters 15-9, led by an explosive season from Anthony Edwards (28.7 ppg). His matchup with Curry would headline, but with Curry on the sidelines, Edwards becomes the most dangerous offensive player on the floor.

Minnesota eliminated Golden State from the 2025 playoffs, and the Wolves’ long roster continues to pose matchup problems.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

Golden State’s biggest challenge is scoring efficiently without orchestrating Curry and Draymond. Their half-court creation becomes far more reliant on Butler and secondary linebackers. Meanwhile, Minnesota has struggled against the spread recently and is allowing more runs despite a strong overall record.

However, Golden State’s home court advantage and recent 3-0 ATS streak indicate an improvement in rhythm, and Minnesota’s inability to play as underdogs is a concern. If Butler plays and Melton contributes significant minutes, the Warriors still possess enough two-way stability to pull out a narrow win.