Nicolas Dalby vs. Saigid Izagakhmaev forecast, odds, selection for UFC Qatar

UFC Qatar: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker continues the preliminaries with Nicholas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagahmayev at welterweight on Saturday. Chey our ufc chances series for our prediction and selection of Dalby-Izagakhmaev.

Nicholas Dalby (23-6-1) enters UFC Qatar in a tough spot, having dropped his last two fights—a knockout loss to Randy Brown and a split decision loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov. He previously scored a huge TKO over Gabriel Bonfimo heading into this weekend’s fight against Saigid Izagakhmaev.

Saigid Izagakhmaev (22-2) enters UFC Qatar on the back of a dominant run in ONE Championship, where he finished Shinya Aoki by TKO in the first round and defeated Lipeng Zhang by decision. The Dagestani grappler is showing top wrestling and has yet to fight in the UFC as he comes into action this weekend against Nicholas Dalby.

Here they are UFC Qatar oddscourtesy of DraftKings.

UFC Qatar odds: Nicolas Dalby-Saigid Izagakhmaev odds

Nicholas Dalby: +270

Saigid Izagakhmaev: -340

Over 2.5 laps: -145

Up to 2.5 rounds: +114

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Why Nicholas Dalby will win

• Last Fight: (L) Randy Brown – KO/TKO R2
• Last 5: 3-2
• Ends: 11 (7 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Nicholas Dalby can pull off an upset at UFC Qatar by mixing his relentless pressure with sharp striking and stamina. During his long UFC career, Dalby has faced a variety of elite grapplers and is rarely stopped for long — even against strong wrestlers, his movement and pace shine.​​

Dalby’s cardio, output and volume are his biggest weapons, often overwhelming opponents who can’t match his work rate. If he keeps this fight, his signature body shots and fluid footwork could frustrate Izagakhmaev, who is making his UFC debut and may need time to adjust to the flow of the Octagon.​​​​

With over 30 professional fights, Dalby’s experience is significant — he’s survived wild battles and never been submitted, making him uniquely resilient against Dagestani grapplers. He shocked the world by finishing with Gabriel Bonfimo and has a proven ability to rise to the occasion when it counts.​​

Against the UFC debutant, Dalby’s toughness and refusal to break could be the deciding factors. If he can drag Izagahmayev into deep water, wear him down and make him ugly, Dalby’s veteran smarts give him a clear path to victory in Qatar.​​

Why Saigid Izagakhmaev will win

• Last Fight: (V) Shinya Aoki – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 5-0
• Ends: 16 (4 KO/TKO/12 SUB)

Saigid Izagakhmaev’s relentless wrestling in Dagestan is the biggest difference against Dalby this Saturday. He brings suffocating top control, smooth transitions and a deadly arsenal of submissions, making it difficult for opponents to scramble or find space if taken down.​​​​

Dalby’s takedown defense is just 59 percent, and his 28 percent takedown accuracy means he’ll likely be drawn into a defensive fight on the mat. Izagakhmaev’s experience finishing successful names like Shinya Aoki and his constant training in Khabib Nurmagomedov’s camp guarantee a level of intensity and positional dominance rarely matched in the welterweight division.​​

While Dalby’s stamina and high output give him a chance to strike, Izagakhmaev’s pressure and fight pace are proven to break down opponents with similar resumes. Time out of the cage is a concern, but his recent grappling matches keep him sharp and competitive at an elite level.​​

Ultimately, Izagakhmaev’s wrestling pedigree and dedication to control should allow him to neutralize Dalby’s offense, grind out rounds and potentially find a late submission as he makes his UFC debut in Qatar.​​

Final Nicolas Dalby-Saigid Izagakhmaev prediction and choice

This matchup between Saygid Izagahmayev and Nicholas Dalby offers a classic style clash between the ruthless Dagestani grappler and the durable veteran of great bulk. Izagakhmaev comes in with a lot of excitement, world-class wrestling and the ability to dictate where the fight will take place, while Dalby brings grit, cardio and veteran experience that has frustrated many UFC opponents before.​​

Izagakhmaev’s path to victory is clear if he can get Dalby to the mat early and often, where his suffocating pressure and slick pads come into play. Dalby, however, proved incredibly difficult to finish off, with his shifting ability and defensive awareness honed through battles against some of the division’s best.​​

On the feet, Dalby’s size could score points and test Izagakhmaev’s striking defense, especially if the UFC newcomer struggles with Octagon jitters or fuel tank issues. However, the advantage probably goes to Izagakhmaev, whose physicality and wrestling pedigree seem ready to overcome even an experienced opponent like Dalby.​​

Expect a competitive start, but as the rounds progress, look for Izagakhmaev to take control with takedowns, heavy ground control and a possible submission threat. Saigid Izagakhmaev achieves this by decision or late submission at UFC Qatar.​​

Final Nicolas Dalby-Saigid Izagakhmaev Prediction and pick: Saigid Izagakhmaev (-340), over 2.5 rounds (-145)