Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez forecast, odds, picks for UFC Houston

UFC Houston: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez continues Saturday’s middleweight main event between Shawn Strickland and Anthony Hernandez. Check out our UFC odds series for our Strickland-Hernandez forecast and selection.

Sean Strickland (29-7) enters this bout looking to regain momentum after falling short of a title rematch against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 312 in February 2025. Prior to that split decision loss, the former champion secured a decision win over Paul Costa, relying on his trademark pressure and jab against Ant in Sunday’s fight.

Anthony Hernandez (15-2) is riding an impressive eight-fight win streak into this main event, most recently dominating Roman Dolidze in the fourth round in August 2025. “Fluffi” previously secured a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen and a fifth-round TKO, while Mikeldio Pereling showed off his revamped scoring in the fifth round. fight this weekend against Sean Strickland.

Courtesy of UFC Houston Odds DraftKings.

UFC Houston odds: Sean Strickland-Anthony Hernandez odds

Sean Strickland: +230

Anthony Hernandez: -285

Over 4.5 laps: -175

Up to 4.5 rounds: +135

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Why Sean Strickland Will Win

• Last fight: (V) Roman Dolidze – SUB R4
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finish: 12 (3 KO/TKO/9 SUB)

Sean Strickland enters this contest as a stylistic nightmare who can derail Anthony Hernandez’s hype train. “Tarzan” boasts one of the most effective defensive guards in the division, with an 84% strikeout save rate that forces catchers into a matchup they can’t win. His unique upright stance and arm wrestling ability allow him to land submissions without compromising his position, a critical advantage against a chain wrestler like Hernandez.

Hernandez relies on mayhem and cardio to drown opponents, but Strickland is a cardio machine in her own right who thrives in deep water. We’ve seen Hernandez struggle to apply his game when he can’t secure an early takedown, often leaving him on the feet where his strike defense is porous. Strickland’s relentless jab and pressure will punish these openings, keeping Hernandez on the back foot and unable to land his shots.

Moreover, Strickland’s experience in five-round main events gives him a significant advantage in pace and composure. While Hernandez is dangerous, he has never faced a defensive conundrum like Strickland who can systematically dismantle the will of catchers by denying them their primary condition to win. Expect Strickland to land early takedowns, establish his jab, and single out Hernandez for a dominant decision win.

Why Anthony Hernandez Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Dricus Du Plessis – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Ends: 15 (11 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Anthony Hernandez enters this main event as the most dangerous and unpredictable force Sean Strickland has faced in years. “Fluffi” brings a chaotic, up-tempo grappling style that can overwhelm even the most disciplined defenders. His ability to chain those attacks, submission attempts and scrambles together creates a level of pressure that breaks down opponents mentally and physically, a stark contrast to the methodical pace that Strickland prefers.

Strickland’s upright stance and reliance on parrying make him vulnerable to level changes and unorthodox submissions, which are Hernandez’s specialty. We’ve seen Strickland struggle when he’s forced to defend against relentless chain wrestling that doesn’t allow him to reset, and Hernandez averages over 6 takedowns per 15 minutes with relentless pursuit.
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What’s more, Hernandez’s cardio is legendary, allowing him to maintain a frenzied pace for 25 minutes, which may expose Strickland’s penchant for playing games in the later rounds. Although Strickland is durable, he has never faced a grappler who can take advantage of pace and transition like Hernandez.

Expect Hernandez to eat a few jabs early, but he will continue to attack relentlessly until he breaks Strickland’s rhythm. Once the fight hits the mat or clinch, Hernandez’s superior takedown and submission threat will allow him to control the fight and secure the upset victory.

Final prediction and pick Sean Strickland-Anthony Hernandez

Anthony Hernandez enters this main event as a relentless force capable of overcoming Sean Strickland’s defensive shellacking. “Fluffi” brings a chaotic, fast-paced grappling style that averages over 6 takedowns per 15 minutes, a level of pressure that can break even the most disciplined fighters.

While Strickland boasts excellent takedown defense, he relies on an upright stance and arm wrestling that leaves him vulnerable to relentless chain wrestling and unorthodox level changes. Hernandez excels at creating scrambles and transitions that force opponents to work consistently, a pace that Strickland has historically struggled to match when forced out of his rhythm.​​

What’s more, Hernandez’s cardio is legendary, allowing him to push a frenzied pace for 25 minutes that can expose Strickland’s penchant for lunging in the later rounds. Strickland’s durability is unquestionable, but he’s never faced a fight that can use the pace and submission threats of Hernandez.

Expect Hernandez to eat a few jabs early on, but he will continue to attack relentlessly until he breaks Strickland’s will, as he secures a fourth-round victory, likely via rear choke, after wearing Strickland down with constant exchanges in the fight.

Sean Strickland-Anthony Hernandez Finals Prediction and Pick: Anthony Hernandez (-285), up to 4.5 rounds (+135)