Spurs vs Thunder 2025 NBA Christmas Prediction, Odds, Pick

Christmas Day continues in the NBA as we’re ready to bring you another betting prediction and pick for the upcoming slate. The San Antonio Spurs (22-7) will visit Oklahoma City Thunder (26-4) as the two teams meet to continue the latest rivalry in the Western Conference. Check out ours NBA Christmas Odds Series for Carolina-Montague prediction and selection.

The San Antonio Spurs are second in the West after beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 130-110 in their last game. The Spurs are now 2-0 against the best team in the NBA and have cut their lead in the Western Conference to just 3.5 games, looking to add another win here as the underdogs.

The Oklahoma City Thunder still lead the West after their latest loss to the Spurs. Despite suffering three losses in their last five games, the Thunder are still 14-0 at home this season and will be motivated to get their first win over the Spurs at home on Christmas Day.

NBA odds thanks to DraftKings

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds for Christmas

San Antonio Spurs: +9.5 (-118)

Oklahoma City Thunder: -9.5 (-102)

Over: 234.5 (-105)

Under: 234.5 (-115)

Spurs vs Thunder Key Injuries

San Antonio: There is no one to report

Oklahoma City: Ousmane Dieng, OUT (calf) / Ajay Mitchell, OUT (concussion) / Thomas Sorber, OUT (ACL) / Jailin Williams, OUT (heel)

Spurs vs Thunder betting trends

• The Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-1 at home. The San Antonio Spurs are 11-6 on the road.
• The Thunder have been favorites in every game this season.
• The Spurs are 8-4 as underdogs.
• The Thunder are 16-14 ATS overall, 9-6 ATS at home. The Spurs are 17-13 ATS overall, 7-10 ATS at home.
• The Spurs are 2-1, 2-1 ATS in their last three games against the Thunder.
• The Spurs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Thunder are 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Thunder.

Keys to Spurs vs. Thunder Matchup

The San Antonio Spurs shocked the world once again, this time making a massive statement and pulling away during the fourth quarter to win by 20 points in the first meeting. It was the worst loss of the season for the Thunder as they saw multiple droughts late in the third quarter and throughout the fourth. A lot of that is due to Spurs’ dominant defensive presence Victor Vembanyama in the paint, completely disrupting OKC’s style of play and making this rivalry even more interesting.

Much of Oklahoma City’s success hinges on their activity around the rim, performing as one of the better mid-range teams in the NBA along with driving to the rim. Wembanyama’s rim protection is imposing enough without the need to draw fouls, an aspect the Thunder have relied heavily on in the past to win. Pair their interior defense with a strong perimeter defense De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle and this Spurs team look like the perfect defensive matchup to stop the Thunder during a four game series.

Still, Oklahoma City can’t handle these losses well and the defending NBA champions will be motivated as ever to get back to winning ways on their home court. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander he’s averaging over 30 PPG against the Spurs this season, so we can expect almost the same from him in terms of points. Isaiah Hartenstein made a big impact with 12 rebounds in his return to action, but neither he nor Chet Holmgren provided much scoring help at the rim and forced Vembanyama into foul trouble.

Jalen Williams is an extremely important player during this match as he often served as OKC’s spark plug with his goals in droves. We saw him warm up three times last season and he’s one of those players who feeds off the energy of the crowd. Given the electric atmosphere of Christmas, a player like Williams should thrive in that environment and help lift his team to victory.

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

We’re getting back-to-back installments of the NBA’s hottest rivalry and the defending champions have to be stunned to be down 2-0 in this series. I expect a much better shooting game from the Thunder and their success at home is undeniable. Although we sided with the Spurs in the previous two meetings, the Thunder will be motivated to show a much better performance this time. I expect their trends to continue at home as they finally managed to cover the difference against a Spurs team.

Final Spurs-Thunder Christmas Day Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-102); OVER 234.5 (-105)