The Bengals’ X-factor that must emerge to upset the Ravens on Thanksgiving

The Cincinnati Bengals are in a precarious position heading into Thursday night’s primetime matchup against the rival Baltimore Ravens. At 3-8 and in last place in the AFC North, Cincinnati has lost eight of its last nine games and is in desperate need of a spark to salvage a torrid season.

But there’s a reason Vegas installed Baltimore as a 7-point favorite — the Ravens have been on an impressive streak, winning five straight games and bolstering the defense into one of the league’s most feared units. For the Bengals to pull off an upset on the road, one player must be absolutely spectacular Thursday night:

Joe Burrow it must provide efficient, error-free performance

Berro’s return has been the subject of intense speculation all weekand with good reason. His last appearance was in Week 2 before a toe injury forced him to the sidelines. In his absence, backup Joe Flacco has been able to carry the team at times, but Cincinnati’s offense has stalled dramatically without their star quarterback. Now Barrow returns to face one of the league’s most improved defenses — a Ravens unit that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in six straight weeks.

This is hardly the best scenario for a comeback, but it represents the Bengals’ best path to victory. The Ravens defense has recorded just 18 sacks in 11 games, suggesting Barrow shouldn’t face a ton of pressure up front. However, the Ravens’ secondary has tightened up significantly since mid-October, forcing opposing offenses to execute with precision.

If Barrow can shake off the rust and avoid costly losses, the Bengals’ playmakers — led by Ja’Marr Chasewho just returned from suspension—can create explosive plays down the field.

Ja’Marr Chase has to make up for Higgins’ absence

The biggest blow to Cincinnati’s receiving corps is the loss of Ty Higgins to a concussion. Higgins’ absence means Baltimore’s secondary can focus its efforts almost exclusively on shutting down the league’s most elite receiver in Ja’Marr Chase. That’s exactly why Chase becomes a real X-factor for Cincinnati.

Ja’Marr Chase is funny. pic.twitter.com/8V0c0ArRdi

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 12, 2025

Chase is arguably the NFL’s most dynamic playmaker when operating in space, but he can’t afford to be the only threat Barrow relies on against a Ravens secondary that features star safety Kyle Hamilton — a generational talent. The Ravens have allowed Chase to accumulate 962 career receiving yards against them, but will enter Thursday with a game plan specifically designed to contain him without Higgins operating on the opposite side of the field.

Chase’s ability to create mismatches and win — whether through sheer athleticism or accurate route running — will be essential to keeping the Ravens’ secondary honest. If Chase can establish early dominance, it opens up opportunities for complementary receivers like Andrei Iosivas and Noah Fant to operate in space.

The moment the Ravens commit double-coverage resources to Chase, Burrow needs rhythm options to hit on time and on target. Chase’s performance will likely determine whether the Bengals can sustain drives and keep up with Baltimore’s ground-oriented offense, which features Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson behind an improving offensive line.