The Bills X-factor against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, and it’s not Josh Allen

The Buffalo Bills will once again take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL playoffs, this time in the AFK Championship 2025. The two franchises have met in the postseason now four of the last five years, with Patrick Mahomes‘ the team gets better Josh Allenwith the team in all three matches so far. The Bills are trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. With two more wins, Buffalo would hoist its first ever Lombardi Trophy.

Josh Allen enters this match as one of the favorites for MVP. The Bills’ leader under center had the best static of his career, posting the second-highest KBR in the league at 77.3. In two postseason games, Allen threw for 399 total yards, rushed for 66 yards and scored four touchdowns. Buffalo’s offense will eventually have to be productive against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has only allowed 19.2 points per game during the regular season.

However, what happens on the other side of the field is even more important in this match. Because the Chiefs offense and Bills defense have struggled at times in 2024, but appear to be playing their best football when it matters most.

Also, the Bills’ previous three straight elimination losses against their AFC foe have been largely due to their defense being shredded by Patrick Mahomes and company. But that didn’t happen in Buffalo wins at home against Kansas City during the regular season. And then there’s a certain linebacker who wreaked havoc against the Chiefs on offense in Week 11 and is the X-factor for Sunday’s game.

Terrelle Bernard is the X-factor for the AFC Championship

The 25-year-old X-factor can sometimes be modest. Bernard recorded a total of 104 tackles this season, with one sack, two interceptions and 13 tackles for loss. However, the former Baylor’s presence, especially in pass coverage, is critical for this game.

Even though Travis Kelce had the lowest receiving yardage total of his career in 2024, the superstar tight end had a miraculous performance in Kansas City’s win over the Houston Texans. Kelce caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown. It was the all-time best performance by a tight end in a season as he added another legendary playoff run to his resume.

Buffalo’s ability to disrupt the Kelce-Mahomes connection is critical in this contest. And this need looks like a big concern for the Bills, as their defense is giving up 226.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Additionally, when the Chiefs eliminated the Bills in the Divisional Round last season, Kelce had seven receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns.

However, if the regular season is any indication, the Bills held the legendary tight end to just eight yards on Nov. 17. Bernard was all over the field, recording eight tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss, one pass defensed and one interception.

The Chiefs scored just 21 points in a game largely controlled by Buffalo. Bernard will need to repeat this type of performance for a defense that has offered very little resistance to Kansas City in past postseason clashes. Fortunately, the third-year quarterback is in solid form, after fumbling and recovering a critical fourth quarter fumble by Ravens tight end Mark Andrews last weekend.

What’s at stake for the Buffalo Bills

It may not always be the best term, but it applies here. This is a legacy game for Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Josh Allen. The pairing revitalized a franchise that, when McDermott was hired, was suffering from the longest postseason drought in major American sports. That drought is over, and Buffalo has now made the playoffs six years in a row.

Buffalo reached the 2021 AFC Championship with this pair, and Kansas City won that game at home 38-24. While Allen has a decent record against Mahomes in the regular season, he hasn’t beaten his biggest opponent when it matters most. There are almost no improvements a player or organization can make each year. But with every postseason loss for this Bills franchise, especially the one to the Chiefs, Buffalo seems to be heading toward now-or-never mode.

Although they couldn’t get the No. 1 seed, Sean McDermott and company had a fantastic season. The Bills went 13-4 on the year that included a dominant seven-game winning streak. Josh Allen has a solid receiving core and a 1,000-yard rusher in James Cook.

The Bills defense is gaining momentum, even posting some critical turnovers against MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense. Buffalo has looked the part and now it’s time to overcome his biggest mental hurdle.

A loss in this AFC Championship game and the question is whether the Sean McDermott/Josh Allen pairing is what can bring this organization its first Super Bowl. A title that this fan base, because of how loyal they have been over the years, deserves. Terrelle Bernard can go a long way in breaking this drought for this beloved franchise.