The Broncos’ dream playoff scenario with 3 weeks left in the regular season

The Denver Broncos have turned into one of the most dominant forces in professional football, and with three games remaining in the regular season, the Mile High City stands on the brink of a historic postseason. Sitting atop the AFC with a 12-2 record and a 10-game winning streak, Sean Payton’s squad finds itself in complete control of not only the AFC West, but potentially the coveted No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs. What initially looked like a rebuilding project has transformed into a dream scenario where the Broncos could secure home field advantage throughout the postseason, a luxury they last enjoyed in 2015.

The Broncos’ path to the top seed has become crystal clear, though it will require navigating a treacherous final stretch. While the New England Patriots have proven to be a strong contender for the top seed, Denver’s superior conference record (7-2 vs. 6-2 New England) provides a tangible advantage in recent weeks. The playoff implications can’t be understated — home field advantage throughout the postseason has proven invaluable in championship runs, and the Broncos’ undefeated record at Power Field this season (10-0) shows why controlling destiny at home is important.

Bo Nix’s Momentum Building

Bo Nix has been an unlikely catalyst in Denver’s resurgence, heating up just when the Broncos needed him most. The rookie quarterback led the offense responsibly while making plays when needed, showing growth that usually takes years for young quarterbacks to develop. With his confidence growing and his receiving corps bolstered — especially with the emergence of receivers in Denver’s system — Nix is ​​a wildcard asset that could prove devastating in January football.​​

The Broncos’ dream scenario culminates in a No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, positioning them as Super Bowl favorites in January. With three games remaining, everything points to Denver accomplishing just that.​

Control AFC West Crown

The most immediate goal for Denver is to secure the AFC West title, which they haven’t won since 2015. The Broncos currently hold a commanding position in the divisional game, but the Los Angeles Chargers still lurk right behind at 8-4, posing a potential threat if Denver falters down the stretch. However, with two of Denver’s three divisional games remaining, the Broncos essentially control their own destiny. A Week 18 matchup against the Chargers at home presents the perfect opportunity to decisively gain the upper hand in the division, potentially with several starters resting in an important game.

A road trip through the AFC West provides the Broncos with manageable challenges. While facing the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day at Arrowhead Stadium in a short week presents complications, the Chiefs themselves are struggling at 6-6 and have largely become irrelevant in the playoff conversation. This dramatically increases Denver’s chances of winning what could be a pivotal game in their playoff run. A division championship would guarantee a playoff spot and keep the No. 1 seed conversation alive until Week 18.​​

No. 1 Seed Path Forward

For the Broncos to secure first place, a near-perfect finish becomes necessary, but entirely achievable. Cleaning up their remaining schedule against Jacksonville (9-4), Kansas City (6-6) and Los Angeles (8-4) would virtually guarantee the No. 1 seed, assuming New England doesn’t make the standings themselves. The Jacksonville Jaguars present the scariest test on paper, but they’re a team the Broncos have dealt with earlier in their schedule. With growing playoff implications, Bo Nix and Denver’s balanced offensive attack should be primed to perform at its highest level when it matters most.

The statistical fundamentals support Denver’s aspirations for the No. 1 seed. According to recent playoff probability models, the Broncos have approximately a 40% chance of securing both the No. 1 seed and next week. Those odds get significantly better with each win, and given Denver’s demonstrated ability to win close games and perform at home, finishing the regular season undefeated remains within the realm of possibility.​​