The Celtics deserve an asterisk after failing to meet the almost-certain championship rule

ByNBAUSA



After suffering a brutal 103-84 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night, Boston Celtics are disqualified to meet the 40-20 rule, which states that to win the NBA championship, a team must win 40 games before dropping 20 during the regular season. The fact that this the theory comes from 13-time NBA champion Phil Jackson should be sufficient proof of its validity. If not, consider that 40 of the last 44 NBA champions have gone 40-20.

Since the Celtics failed to adhere to Jackson’s almost certain rule, are they doomed? History says probably, but there is some important context that should see the Green Team through this season.

It took the Celtics 58 games to go 20-loss, and star forward Jayson Tatum missed zero of those contests. The six-time All-Star and 2024 NBA champion is still recovering from a ruptured Achilles suffered back in May, but there’s reason to believe he could return to action before the regular season ends.

Without one of the cornerstones of their franchise, the Celtics still nearly ended Jackson’s reign 40-20. That’s a feat in itself, as many pundits and preseason projections left the C’s for dead.

Instead of slumbering through a down year, the Celtics fully recovered from their offseason losses — including centers Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Cornett, as well as guard Jrue Holiday — and continued to develop homegrown talent.

Almost every young Celtic, from rookie Hugo Gonzalez to third-year wing Jordan Walsh, stepped up, and most of the veterans did the same. While the Sixth Man of the Year reigned Payton Pritchard and the starting guard Derrick White they haven’t had career years (although still producing at a high level), Celtics star Jaylen Brown is playing one of the best basketball games of his life.

In his 10th year in the NBA, Brown is setting new career highs in points, rebounds and assists per game. His increased usage in Tatum’s absence has undoubtedly boosted his numbers, but stats aside, the 2026 Eastern Conference All-Star starter is playing winning basketball.

therefore, even without Tatum, the rest of the Celtics stepped up and posted an impressive 38-20 record nearly 60 games into the season. Had they beaten the Nuggets, they could have reached the 40-20 mark with an easier matchup against the Brooklyn Nets on Friday night.

And while that hypothetical no longer matters, what the Celtics might look like with Tatum is. The star of rehabilitation was “full action” in 5 on 5 team battles per NBA insider Shams Charani, meaning a return in March isn’t out of the question. His presence on an already accomplished Celtics team would undoubtedly help them contend in a tough but winnable East.

If Tatum had been healthy, it’s pretty safe to say the Celtics would have been eligible for the 40-20 rule this season along with the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons. Moreover, a championship team winning without its best player is not uncommon.

What the Milwaukee Bucks did without Giannis Antetokounmpo

During the shortened 2020-21 campaign, the Milwaukee Bucks did not meet the 40-20 rule. Like the Celtics, they were a few games shy, but that didn’t stop them from beating the Phoenix Suns in six games to win the 2021 NBA Finals.

Before the Bucks’ first championship in 50 years, the star center Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his knee in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and was forced to leave early due to the loss of the explosion. Fortunately, he did not sustain a major injury, but sat out ECF Games 5 and 6 against the Atlanta Hawks in a 2-2 series tie.

That doesn’t mean the Bucks have given up, though. They won both games by double digits without their star, which is somewhat reminiscent of how the Celtics were able to operate without Tatum.

Sure, Antetokounmpo wasn’t hurt as badly or for as long as Tatum, but this example proves that a team that hasn’t reached the 40-20 threshold can still beat anything without their guy at full strength.

Seeding and eye test

Despite the 2020-21 Bucks losing 24 times before earning 40 wins, they met another potential championship qualifier. They were no. 3 seed, and NBA history shows that almost every champion has been a 3 seed or higher.

The only exception is the 1968-1969 Celtics, who were the no. 4 seed and the 1994-1995 Houston Rockets, who were the no. 6 seeds. Both teams were championship contenders from previous seasons, and if there’s a team with championship pedigree in the East, it’s the Celtics.

They may not be defending their title like the aforementioned teams, but they won a championship in 2024 with Tatum, Brown and a head coach Joe Mazzulla at the head. Those figures didn’t go away and even though the Celtics violated the 40-20 rule, they are in compliance with the seeding provision.

Boston is currently in second place in the East, 2.5 games ahead of the third-place New York Knicks. The Celtics aren’t cemented in that spot, but they’ve been there a lot lately. Plus, more importantly, they played some of their best basketball in a while, winning nine of their last 10 games before falling to the Nuggets on the second night of back-to-back games.

Regardless of the unofficial championship prerequisites, the 2025-26 Celtics simply pass the eye test. They are fourth in net rating and have survived some early struggles to become a top-5 team in the NBA this season. They crash the boards hard, defend well and are not to be taken lightly, especially when Brown is doing well.

Add Tatum to the mix and the Celtics are a legitimate contender. Not exactly title favorites, but contenders – no matter what Jackson claims.





2026-02-26 18:22:00

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