The Chiefs must capitalize on the Bills’ fatal mistake in the AFC Championship game

The The Kansas City Chiefs advanced to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh year in a row, and it will be again taking over the Buffalo Bills in a highly anticipated match. Patrick Mahomes and company beat Josh Allen and the Bills three straight in the playoffs during their recent rivalry, setting the stage for a big matchup with a trip to Super Bowl 59.

The 2024 campaign was a little different for the Chiefs, as they weren’t quite as dominant as expected, despite cruising to a 15-2 record. Kansas City often grinding ugly victoriesand they were just a few plays away from having a marginally different record. Their ability to find ways to win is unmatched, and they must be considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl until they are eliminated.

If there’s a team that has a chance to pack them in, it’s the Bills, as they were the only team to beat them this year when they were playing at full strength. Kansas City will have a lot of motivation to win this game and get revenge, and if they can expose this fatal flaw that Buffalo possesses, they will have a chance to win their third straight Super Bowl.

A fatal flaw in the Bills that the Chiefs can exploit: a lack of pass-catching talent

The Bills are one of the deepest teams in the NFL. They possess a locked-down defense and one of the game’s most dangerous weapons on offense in their star quarterback. Although they lost their top two pass catchers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, this past offseason, their offense looked better than ever with Allen at the helm.

While the lack of playmaking on offense hasn’t come back to hurt Buffalo yet this season, Kansas City is in a good spot to make them pay for it in this game, and realistically, it may be their only way to win. The Bills have a number of pass catchers, such as Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and the tight end duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, but there is no consistent number one option for Allen to throw to.

The Chiefs already have a game plan in place to beat the Bills. In their regular season meeting, which Buffalo won 30-21, Kansas City largely made Allen win the game in the air. The Bills ran for just 104 yards on 31 carries, but picked up three of their touchdowns on the ground, which proved to be the difference.

While it didn’t work out in their first meeting, it’s reasonable to expect the Chiefs to employ a similar strategy in this game. They will stack the box to slow down James Cook and Allen on the ground in hopes of setting up third-and-long situations. They achieved this the first time they met this season; the problem was that Allen carved them up for 262 yards and a touchdown.

However, this time things are different. Kansas City is mostly healthy on defense, and that includes having one of their starting cornerbacks healthy in Jalen Watson after he missed their first scrimmage. Watson was pressed into action after playing his first game in nearly three months when the Chiefs beat the Houston Texans in the divisional round, but his role will certainly increase against Buffalo.

Now that Watson is healthy, it makes things difficult for Allen, as the Chiefs can run their favorite coverages against him. With Trent McDuffie on the other end, Kansas City has two corners who can stick to their man coverage assignment, which is huge because it allows the rest of the defense to play a little more freely. Safeties Justin Reid and Brian Cook can be more aggressive, which is important to note given the amount of unique blitz packages defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will send Allen.

If Buffalo gets things going down the field, Kansas City could be in trouble, as it will open up the passing attack for Allen and company. The Chiefs have to keep their running backs in the box, because if they drop back into coverage, they are put in a no-win situation. Allen will find matchups he likes and attack those linebackers, and if he doesn’t find anything he likes, he’ll take off and run the ball himself.

The Bills have done a great job of masking their lack of pass-catching talent all season, but the Chiefs have the personnel to make life miserable for them in the AFC Championship Game. If they can stop Buffalo’s ground game and show Allen some different looks this time around, Kansas City will have a good chance to advance to the Super Bowl.