The X-factor Buccaneers will upset the Lions on Monday Night Football in Week 7

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive at Ford Field on Monday night as 4.5-point underdogs, but their status as road dogs shouldn’t daunt anyone who has watched the Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield do in 2025. At 5-1 and atop the NFC standings, the Buccaneers have the firepower to pull off a 4-2 upset Detroit Lions in what promises to be a pivotal NFC showdown. Two critical X factors could be the difference between a win and a missed opportunity: Mayfield’s elite efficiency in the spotlight and the potential return of a future Hall of Famer Mike Evans of three games of absence.

Baker Mayfield: The prime-time maestro leading the NFC’s best

Baker Mayfield has transformed himself into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFLand his 2025 campaign represents the pinnacle of his career revival. Through six games, Mayfield has amassed 1,539 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and just one interception while posting a league-leading 108.5 passer rating. Perhaps most impressively, he completed 66.2% of his passes despite missing three of his top receivers for significant plays.​​

Mayfield’s mastery in high-leverage situations makes him especially dangerous on Monday Night Football. In 2025, he boasts a 5-1 record in kickoffs, averaging 256.5 passing yards per contest with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. His last two performances show exactly why Detroit’s defense should be concerned. In Week 5 against Seattle, Mayfield torched the Seahawks for 379 yards and two touchdowns while completing an absurd 87.9% of his passes en route to a 134.7 completion percentage. A week later against San Francisco, he followed up with 256 yards, two more scores and a 139.0 rating while completing 73.9% of his attempts.​​

What makes Mayfield so dangerous against Detroit is his ability to exploit linebacker coverage — the very weakness Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs exposed in Week 6. Mahomes completed 13 of 17 attempts for 165 yards and a touchdown when targeting Lions linebackers Jack Campbell and Alex Antras Campbell against Alex Ans tu Campbell. six catches for 78 yards. Campbell surrendered five receptions for 66 yards in that contest, while Anzalone gave up six catches for 56 yards. The Chiefs essentially provided a blueprint for attacking Detroit’s defense by keeping the Lions in base packages and targeting linebackers in coverage.​​

Mayfield has the weapons and tactical acumen to replicate that approach. Even without several key offensive contributors, he has shown an uncanny ability to find open receivers and make defenses pay for coverage breakdowns. His fourth quarter performance was particularly impressive, completing 64.3% for 426 yards and two touchdowns in the final frame this season. Against a Lions defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league while ranking 25th in pass defense, Mayfield should have plenty of opportunities to pick apart Detroit’s secondary and take advantage of those vulnerable backs.​​

Mike Evans: The Game-Changer Returns

Bucs hopeful Mike Evans (hamstring) returns to practice this week.

— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 13, 2025

The potential return of Mike Evans could be the difference between a competitive game and an upset of the Buccaneers. After missing three games with a hamstring strain in Week 3 against the New York Jets, Evans is expected to practice this week with a strong possibility of suiting up Monday night. Coach Todd Bowles expressed optimism about Evans’ availability, noting that the wide receiver is eager to avoid missing a fourth straight game.​​

Evans’ return carries huge implications beyond simply adding another weapon to Tampa Bay’s arsenal. The 31-year-old future Hall of Famer is chasing history, currently sitting at just 140 receiving yards through three games as he pursues his 11th straight 1,000-yard season — a streak he shares with Jerry Rice. To reach 1,000 yards this season, Evans needs 860 yards over the last 11 games, a challenging but attainable goal with injuries to other Buccaneers receivers that should point more in his direction.​​

More importantly for Monday’s matchup, Evans provides exactly the kind of red zone threat that can tilt close games. Throughout his career, he has been one of the most reliable touchdown producers in the NFL, and his presence immediately transforms Tampa Bay’s offense in scoring situations. The Lions have struggled against an elite passing offense, ranking 14th in passing yards allowed and surrendering the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the league. Against a secondary that has been picked apart by quality quarterbacks, Evans gives Mayfield an option that can win contested catches and create separation in man coverage.​​

Even if Evans isn’t at 100%, his mere presence on the field forces Detroit to allocate defensive resources differently. The Lions will have to be mindful of Evans’ positioning, which creates more favorable matchups for Tampa Bay’s other receivers. With rookie sensation Emeka Egbuk sidelined by his own hamstring injury suffered in Week 6, and Chris Godwin unlikely to play, Evans’ return couldn’t be more timely. Before the injury, Egbuka was the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year with 445 yards and five touchdowns in five games, but his absence leaves a huge void that only Evans can fill.​​

A perfect storm for an upset

The convergence of Mayfield’s elite play and Evans’ potential return creates the perfect conditions for Tampa Bay to shock Detroit at home. The Lions enter Monday night vulnerable after watching the Chiefs methodically dissect their defense with pass rush and running back exploitation. Kansas City’s 30-17 win exposed fundamental flaws in Detroit’s defensive structure that can’t be fixed in a week, especially with the Lions dealing with their own injury problems in the secondary.​​

Detroit’s pass defense ranks 27th in the league, and the team has surrendered 25.2 points per game, ranking 24th in opponents’ points per game. Those numbers suggest a defense capable of an accurate passer with reliable targets — exactly what Tampa Bay brings to the table. Mayfield has posted passer ratings above 134.0 in back-to-back weeks, demonstrating the kind of scorching form that overwhelms defenses.​​

The Buccaneers also carry momentum that goes beyond statistics. They’ve won five straight games to start 5-1, with Mayfield authoring the comeback wins and late-game heroics that defined their season. Four of their five wins have come by eight points or less, showing their ability to execute in crunch time. Against a Lions team coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Kansas City, Tampa Bay has a chance to deal another blow to Detroit’s Super Bowl aspirations.​​

Betting markets reflect the competitiveness of this match, with the over/under set at 52.5 points – suggesting oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair. That environment favors the Buccaneers, who have seen multiple hits in four of their last five games and have demonstrated the offensive firepower to keep up with any team. With Mayfield firing on all cylinders and Evans potentially back on the wing, Tampa Bay possesses the right combination of accurate passing and red-zone efficiency to outlast Detroit in a Monday night showdown.​​

The story surrounding this game may focus on Detroit’s home field advantage and the Lions’ offensive weapons, but the Buccaneers hold the trump card. Mayfield’s career-best form gives them an elite quarterback playing at an MVP level, while Evans’ return adds a missing piece to an offense that’s already averaging 27.5 points per game. Against a Detroit defense that the Chiefs just exposed and a secondary that ranks among the worst in the league, Tampa Bay has all the ingredients for a signature road upset that cements their status as legitimate NFC contenders.​​