Updated DVOA, The Athletic, ESPN model odds after Week 13

The Philadelphia Eagles suffered their second two-game losing streak of the season when they fell behind against the Chicago Bears on Black Friday. When Philadelphia lost back-to-back games in October, NFL analysts lamented The “Lost and Defeated” Eagles locker room. Fans wrote the team off as frauds. And the uproar was only partially mitigated by the four-game winning streak that followed.

After the Eagles lost back-to-back games for the second time in two months, chaos reigned in Philadelphia. The fans called for coaching staff to be fired. Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo actually gave his house to the eggs. And the team was once again dismissed as toothless.

The frustration is somewhat understandable. The Eagles (8-4) have shown flashes this season, but seem flawed in one area or another on a week-to-week basis. After struggling in the first half, Philadelphia’s defense appeared to be much improved. The Eagles held the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to single digits in Weeks 10 and 11.

But in Week 12, Dak Prescott lit up Philly for 354 passing yards and two scores as the division rival Cowboys won 24-21. On Friday, the “Eagles” defense suffered a beating.

Is the sky falling in Philadelphia?

D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangay each had 120 rushing yards. The Bears racked up 281 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. The monster game helped Chicago dominate time of possession (39:18 to 20:42) and total yardage (425 to 317) against Philadelphia.

Saquon Barkley struggled again in Week 13 and even tush push failed the Eagles. But Philly started AJ Brown. The squeaky wheel was greased at 10/132/2 on 12 targets. And Lane Johnson’s return is on the horizon, which should help keep the field game on track.

On the other side of the ball, Jalen Carter’s shoulder injury contributed to the pass defense. The team is hoping a couple of extra days of rest after Friday’s game will help him heal. Additionally, Philadelphia added several pieces at the trade deadline that likely haven’t yet fully adjusted to Vic Fangi’s defense. That unit has put up championship-caliber performances this season and could be in time for the playoffs.

So was the Eagles’ second two-game losing streak in 2025 a sign of serious trouble or just a hiccup? Let’s take a closer look at Philadelphia’s playoff odds after the team’s Week 13 setback.

Eagles playoff odds: DVOA

The DVOA model on FTN Fantasy gives the Eagles a 92.5 percent chance for placement in the playoffs. That’s the third most in the NFC, behind only the Seattle Seahawks (96) and the Los Angeles Rams (95.3). And no team in the conference has a better chance of winning their division than Philadelphia according to DVOA. The Eagles have a 90.5 percent chance of capturing the NFC East. Only the 10-2 Denver Broncos are considered more likely to win their division, at 91.8 percent.

Of course, Eagles fans will not be satisfied with a simple playoff berth. And the team was expected to win the division, given how badly the Cowboys, Commanders and Giants have started this season.

DVOA gives the Eagles a 20.1 percent chance to clinch the Conference Championship. Philadelphia is again behind the Rams (50.6) and Seahawks (46.5). But the model also has the Green Bay Packers above the Eagles with a 33.1 percent chance of reaching the NFC Championship.

DVOA also thinks Philly is the least likely of all three teams to win the championship game, giving the Eagles just a 6.4 percent chance. And the model believes the team has a 2.9 percent chance of repeating as Super Bowl champions.

Eagles playoff odds: ESPN

ESPN’s playoff model has even more faith in Philly making the playoffs. The percentage (93) is essentially the same as the DVOA model. But ESPN has the Eagles tied with the San Francisco 49ers team most likely for a playoff spot in the NFC.

While the Bears currently hold the top seed in the conference, ESPN gives the Rams the best chance to earn a first-round bye. LA has a 30 percent chance to finish atop the NFC. The Packers (17%), Seahawks (16%), 49ers (15%) and Bears (12%) are behind the Rams. And the Eagles come in with just an eight percent chance of taking the top seed.

However, ESPN has better odds on Philadelphia reaching the Super Bowl. The model gives the Eagles a 14 percent chance of returning to the title game. That’s tied for third with the 49ers. Only the Rams (23%) and Packers (18%) have better odds, according to ESPN.

Eagles playoff odds: Athletics

Athletic’s model is closer to DVOA when it comes to playoff probability. Athletic believes the Eagles have a 94 percent chance for placement in the playoffs. Like DVOA, the Athletics give Philly the third-best odds in the conference. However, unlike DVOA, the Athletics have the Rams at 97 percent and the Seahawks at 95 percent.

The two models also agree that the Eagles have the best chance to win their division among NFC teams. Only the New England Patriots are considered more likely to win their division, according to the Athletic. New England has a >99 percent chance of taking the AFC East.

The Athletics are tied with ESPN for the odds of Philadelphia finishing with the No. 1 seed. Both models give the team just an eight percent chance of a first-round bye. However, the Athletic model is far more pessimistic about the Eagles’ chances of repeating as Super Bowl champions. ESPN awarded Philly a 14 percent chance to win the title. Athletic gives the team only an eight percent chance. The model again favors the Patriots with 16 percent shooting, followed by the Rams (15), Seahawks (11) and Broncos (9).

What’s next for the Eagles?

The Eagles have two more opportunities to improve on their already strong 7-3 conference record. Two of Philadelphia’s last three games come against division rivals the Washington Commanders.

But first, Philly will try to snap its two-game skid in another primetime game. The Eagles travel to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 14.

Justin Herbert plans to play against Philadelphia on Monday night despite surgery on his non-throwing arm. The Chargers QB needed a plate and multiple screws to stabilize a fracture in his left arm. Omarion Hampton is expected to play in Week 14 as well. The rookie running back was sidelined after injuring his ankle against the Chiefs in Week 5.