Why Fred VanVleet’s injury is a blessing in disguise for the Rockets

For a team with championship aspirations, losing a veteran point guard right before the start of the season seems like a nightmare. So much, yes injury to Fred VanVleet shaved off three wins with Houston Rockets‘ projected overall win in Vegas.

VanVleet was the Rockets’ most valuable player in the postseason last year, and the most experienced guard on this roster. Without him, Houston had to turn around Amen Thompson position learning and second-year player Reed Shepardwho barely played last season after being the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.The Rockets went just 11-11 in the games VanVleet missed last season.

During the first week of this season, things were looking pretty ugly. Houston entered this week dead last in pace, first in turnovers, 26th in assist rate, second-worst in field goal percentage and second-lowest in points per 100 possessions (83.7), according to Cleaning the Glass. Ikees.

Even the defense, Houston’s calling card a year ago, has suffered — dropping from fifth last season to 12th this year.

Still, it’s an injury that could serve as a blessing in disguise. This short-term pain could create long-term gains that actually push the Rockets closer to championship contention.

Reed Shepard finally gets his chance

Without VanVleet, the Rockets were forced to rip off the Band-Aid with Shepard to see what he could develop into, a year after being drafted third overall. While all the other lottery picks played north of 1,000 minutes as rookies last year, Shepard accumulated just 654.

Now, his minutes per game have already doubled this season as Houston tries to answer the important question of finding out what it has in the former Kentucky standout. Even if Shepard proves inadequate in his new role, it’s better to learn now than delay the inevitable.

This is similar to the Minnesota Vikings, who decided to move on from Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones (currently a combined 12-3 on their new top-ranked teams) this offseason to figure out what they had in second-year quarterback JJ McCarthy.

VanVleet, like Darnold and Jones, is a good veteran player, but not a franchise game changer. We already know that. This forced the Vikings to go back to the drawing board in search of one at the quarterback position. And VanVleet’s absence now forces the Rockets to do the same thing: explore whether Shepard could become that difference maker.

Amen Thompson ups the ante

Moreover, the injury also forced Houston to bring in Amen Thompson, one of the most exciting young players in the league, at point guard. With his elite athleticism and ability to get to the rim, this move could end up serving both Thompson and the Rockets better. It’s a transition Houston may have fallen into just because of the injury.

Things looked pretty promising in Monday’s win over the Brooklyn Nets (considering all the Nets’ caveats), when Thompson and Shepard combined for 16 assists, compared to just two turnovers (both by Shepard). That’s exactly what Houston would hope for from this “committee player,” as head coach Ime Udoka calls it. It’s also something VanVleet would rarely be able to provide on his own, as he recorded just one 12-assist game last season.

“It’s not going to be perfect,” VanVleet told the media this week. “We don’t want to be perfect in October and November. We want to be great at the end of the season. So I think Reed is finding some aggressiveness, some cuteness, some fight. Amen, obviously, to be himself. He’s trying to wear a lot of hats and do a lot of different things. It’s all going to be a work in progress.”

“Both are students of the game and two of the hardest workers I know and see,” VanVleet added. “There’s no way they’re going to fail.”

But the most important development was the decision to launch the attack through Alperen Sengun. His playmaking and vastly improved outside shooting have elevated him to a a real MVP candidate.

Sengun, formerly known as “Baby Jokic,” is the same age (23) that Nikola Jokic was when he made his first All-Star appearance and won his first MVP award. Averaging 6.7 assists per game (17th in the NBA) and shooting a career-high 58.3% from 3-point range, Sengun has become a complete offensive player, capable of doing everything Jokic does. It is the next and perhaps the last step in his progress and rise to fame.

And while these developments may not happen if VanVleet is healthy, they could be just what Houston needs to reach the championship level it so desperately chases.