Why Illinois basketball is a clear candidate for March Madness

In its 121 seasons of play, Illinois has never won a college basketball national title. The achievement also eluded head coach Brad Underwood, who might have his own the best chance for March Madness success with star quarterback Keaton Wagler in 2026

Illinois is 18-3 at the end of January, a month in which it went a perfect 8-0. The Fighting Illini are tied for second in the Big Ten with a 9-1 conference record with 10 games remaining in the regular season.

Underwood’s team faces a challenge to finish the year, but has already been tested as much as any team in the country. Illinois is 4-3 in seven games against ranked opponents with wins over Tennessee, Texas Tech, Iowa and Purdue.

Illinois wasn’t always considered a serious contender for March Madness. Opinions were divided on the team as it started the New Year with a 10-3 record, including just 1-1 in the Big Ten. Their prospects only worsened when they The Illini lost star point guard Keelan Boswell to a significant hand injury following their Jan. 17 win over Minnesota.

However, Illinois has shockingly not lost a game since losing Boswell. The team somehow looked even better than the injury, proving to the country how dangerous it can be at full strength.

The 2025-26 college basketball regular season is still more than a month away, but Illinois looks to be at its best during Underwood’s nine-year tenure.

Keaton Wagler can take over every game

How far Illinois goes in the 2026 March Madness Tournament will depend on star freshman Keaton Wagler. The former four-star recruit has been Brad Underwood’s top offensive threat all year, but has blossomed into one of the top scorers in the nation over the past month.

Wagler is averaging 17.7 points per game on the year — 10th in the Big Ten — shooting 48 percent from the floor and 43.7 percent from three. He reached a completely different level in the final two games of January, dropping 46 points against Purdue and 22 points against Washington.

Since Boswell went down, Wagler has become Illinois’ makeshift point guard. The change has obviously helped Wagler’s scoring, but he’s also grown as a facilitator, averaging 6.7 assists per game in three outings without the senior. Wagler has been one of the best pick-and-roll players over the last two weeks, bringing teammates Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic and even Ben Hamrikus off the bench.

The adjustment has been so smooth that it will force Underwood to rethink his offensive sets when Boswell returns.

Illinois will surely improve when they get Boswell back. The senior is not only the Illini’s second-leading scorer at 14.3 points per game, but has also been one of the top defenders in the country over the past three years.

Regardless, if Underwood learned one thing during his point guard’s absence, he now knows he has an elite scorer capable of taking over any game whenever Wagler is on the court. Wagler will almost certainly enter the NBA draft at the end of the season, giving Illinois a short window to capitalize on its elite talent in March Madness.

Few teams can match the size of Illinois

Keaton Wagler’s offensive dominance has been a revelation for Illinois in the second half of the year, but the Illini defense has been his calling card all season. Although their perimeter defense took a significant hit without Boswell, few teams were able to deal with their physical depth down low.

Through 21 games, Illinois is allowing just 68.2 points per gameTop 40 in the country. The strength of their defense comes through in the paint, where the Illini are in the top 25 in scoring against opponents and rank 11th in the country in rebounding.

Not many teams can match the size and physicality of David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivišić, who anchor Illinois’ starting frontcourt. Brad Underwood then has the luxury of bringing Ivišić’s twin brother7-foot-2 Zvonimir Ivišić, off the bench so as not to lose rhythm with his second unit. Zvonimir Ivišić leads the team with 2.3 blocks per game in just 16.6 minutes per game.

Illinois brings physicality to both ends of the floor, ranking seventh nationally in offensive rebounding and 28th in two-point field goal percentage. All of Underwood’s big men can stretch the floor, too — Zvonimir Ivišić is the worst shooter in the Illini’s frontcourt rotation, shooting 34.4 percent from deep.

Underwood also appreciates the progress junior Ben Humrichous has made over the past year to add depth to the Illini’s frontcourt. Underwood joked that Humrichous “couldn’t guard a dead body” as a sophomore, but is now one of the most versatile 3-and-D players on his roster.

The Illini will go as far as Wagler takes them in the postseason, but teams will have a hard time dealing with this frontcourt on both ends of the floor. Illinois has by far the most well-rounded roster in the country at full strength and will have a deeper March Madness than any of Underwood’s previous teams.