Why Purdue basketball is a clear contender for March Madness

When Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn confirmed that they would be returning to Purdue for the 2025-2026 college basketball seasonmany immediately labeled them as March Madness title favorites. After a strong start, the Boilermakers hit a wall in January, ending the month with a three-game losing streak.

Through 21 games in the regular season, Purdue is 17-4 and ranked No. 12 in the nation, though it is certain to fall before its next game against Maryland. Since a 69-64 win over USC on Jan. 17, the Boilermakers have dropped three straight games against UCLA, Illinois and Indiana.

The losses dropped Purdue’s record to just 7-3 in the Big Ten, fifth in the conference. They’re still in contention because of the conference’s off-season, but there’s a big gap between the top four teams — Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State and Illinois — and the rest of the field.

Purdue, at this point in the college basketball season, is not in the top tier of the Big Ten.

As bad as Purdue’s losing streak is, its rough stretch extends beyond the last three games. Matt Painter’s team has been out of sync for nearly a month, a troubling development for a veteran team whose core is in its third year together.

With 10 games remaining in the 2025-2026 college basketball season, Purdue remains on track to match its 24-12 record from a year ago. However, they are just 2-3 in their first five games against ranked opponents and still have matchups against Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State before the Big Ten Tournament begins.

Even the best teams suffer from slumps, but Purdue has looked outstanding all year. Despite entering the season as one of the most experienced teams in the country, fans have been waiting to find another gear, which is simply not in the cards before March Madness begins.

Purdue will go as far as Braden Smith takes it

Purdue has struggled more than fans are used to, but none of its woes rest on the shoulders of Braden Smith. The senior was the lone bright spot for Painter amid a rough month, as he began to hit his stride at the right time in the season.

Smith’s scoring numbers are down slightly from his breakout junior season, but his assists are up, while his efficiency has skyrocketed. He started the year as the best guard in college basketball and lived up to all expectations as he put Purdue on his back.

Unfortunately, Smith’s play hasn’t been contagious, as his veteran teammates continue to struggle. Still, the little production Purdue got from Trey Kaufman-Wren and Fletcher Loyer this season came from Smith. No one in the country runs the pick-and-roll better.

Smith was so dominant that his performances overshadowed Purdue’s overall struggles. The fact that Kotlarci even came close to being in the national title conversation is entirely his doing.

Inconsistency has plagued Smith at times, as has the rest of the team, but he has been on a warm-up since the New Year, an average of 20.0 points and 7.8 assists while shooting 57 percent from the floor and 47 percent from three over the last seven games. Any success Purdue has going forward will be thanks to Smith, who has March Madness star written all over him.

Purdue doesn’t get enough from Trey Kaufman-Wren

Braden Smith was Purdue’s engine, but no one else did anything to keep the team in neutral. Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer and CJ Cox all showed flashes at various times throughout the season, with none being consistent enough to make the Boilermakers legitimate March Madness contenders.

Kaufman-Wren, who averaged 20.1 points and 6.5 rebounds in 2024-25, was the biggest disappointment. The senior took a shockingly sharp step back in 2025-2026, averaging just 13.1 points and 8.5 rebounds in 21 games.

Kaufman-Wren’s efficiency in the paint remained the same, but his shot attempts dropped from 13.6 as a junior to 10.1 in his senior campaign, while his jump shot fell off a cliff. His mid-range game is almost non-existent, while the three-point shooting that many expected to improve in year four has been a huge disappointment.

Kaufman-Wren is far from the only disappointment from Purdue’s 2025-2026 basketball season. Loyer’s scoring and shooting numbers also regressed, while Cox wasn’t nearly as consistent as some had hoped he would be in year two.

But of the supporting cast, Purdue expected the most from Kaufman-Rehn, who was the team’s leading scorer a year ago and was one of the preseason favorites for the Carl Malone Award, given to the nation’s top football player.

Yet instead of being the dominant interior shooter the Boilermakers need, Kaufman-Renn has been nothing more than a mid-range role player. He is still capable of 20 points every night, but that has become his ceiling instead of a nightly expectation.

The Boilermakers began the season with the perfect tandem of two players on paper, both of whom were considered potential Big Ten Player of the Year winners. Only one of them has appeared so far, and it’s too late in the year to expect anything to change. Without another dominant scorer to complement Smith, Purdue has little chance of advancing to the second weekend of March Madness.