Why the breakout star will seek a $15 million contract extension this summer

The The Memphis Grizzlies have a reputation finding diamonds in the second round. One of their latest revelations is a quick presentation of evidence that his value goes beyond current wages. With a rookie year down the road and another productive season under way, Jalen Wells should seriously consider pushing to a contract extension worth roughly $15 million a year this summer.

Selected with the 39th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Wells outperformed his draft slot in a way that typically has top dollar on the open market. The Grizzlies won’t let Wells hit free agency anytime soon. According to Tuomas IisaloEVP Zach Kleiman knows the price for a starting-caliber two-way wing and why Wells is the best fit around Beale Street.

“Jaylen is just extremely tough. (Wells) fits into different types of lineups because he doesn’t need the ball to make a positive impact on the game,” Iisalo explained. “He’s knocking down open shots and he’s also improved his mid-range goals, which is high efficiency for him. Defensively, he’s played different matchups. He’s always been a ball specialist for us. Now, sophomore year, his off-ball defense, his awareness, his disruption has really gotten better.”

This last sentence is a statistical argument in plain language. Wells is coming off a sophomore season with 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 triples and 0.9 steals in 26.7 minutes per game. Those are quiet numbers. The louder ones were when Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Wells averaged 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists while shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc in December. That three-point accuracy is up to 45.3% in February.

Wells had three 20-point games in a five-game hitting streak and twice had four steals. He went 10 of 13 from the field for 25 points against the Miami Heat after the NBA All-Star break. Efficiency, not just scoring, is what separates this series from run-of-the-mill production. Commit about one turnover per game despite a drastic increase in the utilization rate (20.8) is acceptable in this part of the process. Fortunately for the Grizzlies, the CBA’s cap and 10-year comparison of second-round picks is a good framework for a team deal.

Jalen Wells, Grizzlies on the clock

Herb Jones, the 35th pick in 2021 by New Orleans, signed a four-year, $54 million ($13.5 million AAV) extension after two seasons of averaging 10 points and stout defense. Indiana’s No. 31 pick in 2022, Andrew Nembhard, signed a three-year, $59 million ($19.7 million AAV) contract after a sophomore year with 9.5 points and 4.5 assists. Ayo Dosunmu, the No. 38 pick in 2021 by Chicago, secured a three-year, $21 million contract ($7 million AAV) after similar 3-and-D production.

Isaiah Joe (49th, 2020) signed a three-year, $30 million ($10 million AAV) deal with Oklahoma City; Aaron Wiggins (55, 2021) agreed to a five-year, $47 million ($9.4 million AAV) extension. Wales should claim a number near the top end of that scale. If his February surge (51.6% FG, 44.9% 3PT) carries over into the offseason, the $15 million target may prove conservative.

For the Grizzlies, expanding Wells now aligns with building around cost-controlled talent amid the salary cap. It’s a contract that would have immediate first-round value. For Wells, the $15 million AAV push capitalizes on his momentum before injuries or roster changes alter his leverage. Unrestricted free agency is still a long way off, and that would be a big gamble for such a low return below Structuring NBA CBA Estimated Average Player Salary.

However, there is no telling where this organization will be in a year, nor can anyone assure that the 22-year-old (birthday in August) has a significant role in it. So lock the money in the middle first. Bargain on player options until Labor Day. In any case, this should be done before training camp opens. There should be some provision to cover the early years before Wales risk another crazy accidental injury.