Why the Bucks are holding the final piece for the Heat, the Suns’ Jimmy Butler trade puzzle

It’s not the case IF Jimmy Butler is traded, it is in question WHEN Jimmy Butler was traded, right? This marriage between Butler and Miami Heat has been heading towards an ugly divorce for some time now. That’s why The Phoenix Suns were in the lead to win a six-time All-Star and win a title with him, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

Suns desire to move All-Star point guard Bradley Beal because Butler is the worst kept secret in the league, and frankly, we shouldn’t even call this a secret anymore. The bottom line is that the Heat want Butler gone, Butler wants to join the Suns, and Phoenix would be happy to simply move Beal for Butler.

Unfortunately for the Suns, this is not a sustainable scenario. So many complicated variables go into their pursuit of Butler over the next two weeks until 2025. NBA trade deadline.

In addition Beal holds a no-trade clause and has full control where he would end up in a Butler trade scenario, the Heat, along with almost the entire league, were not interested in adding the 31-year-old guard. So how could this whole Butler mess even be resolved for Phoenix if Beal isn’t wanted in the league?

Well, for starters, any trade involving Butler and the Suns will involve multiple teams for financial reasons. After all, it’s never easy to trade two players making roughly $50 million in one season. There really isn’t a team in the Western Conference that can or wants to take on Beal’s contract, which is why all eyes are on the Eastern Conference, especially Milwaukee Bucks.

Dollars enable Jimmy Butler trade, Suns…not Miami

The Bucks were interested in Beal when he first became available in trade talks with the Washington Wizards in 2023, and it appears that mutual interest still exists to some extent. Would Beal waive his no-trade clause to join Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in Milwaukee?

It seems reasonable to believe that the answer here would be yes, especially since Beal wants to be on the team who can fight at the highest possible level. The Bucks recently won the NBA Cup, and as long as their two superstars are healthy, they have a chance to beat any other team in a seven-game series. However, Milwaukee’s involvement adds more drama to the Butler-Saens scenario simply because of the stress it causes the Bills.

As things stand, the Bucks have one of the largest payrolls in the league and operate like a second team. This means Milwaukee cannot aggregate job salaries and can only match job salaries one-to-one. In order to facilitate this deal between the Heat and the Suns that includes Butler, a player the Bucks have been talking about chasing internally, the organization would first have to move out of the other apron by trading Pat Connaughton.

After that, Milwaukee would then have to combine enough salaries as the first team to add Beal’s $50.2 million contract, which is nearly impossible without opting out Chris MiddletonBobby Portis, and a player like MarJon Beauchamp. Beal has seen his production drop significantly since joining the Suns, and his contract is considered one of the most negative assets in the league. Is this something the Bucks really want to commit to?

Middleton would be replaced by Beal, but the Bucks would not be able to find a viable replacement for Portis, nor would they have the protection on their bench in the form of a veteran like Connaughton. While Milwaukee could still make further moves like trading Brook Lopez for value after acquiring Beal, now you’re talking about dumping this entire roster around Antetokounmpo and Lillard in the middle of the season.

This shared opinion has left many league personnel weary of the idea that the Bucks are seriously considering this scenario.

“(Jon) Horst is a smart guy who has reassembled his vision for a championship roster,” one league source told ClutchPoints. “Chris Middleton is not the same player he was before his injuries, but how much better is Bradley Beal right now?” He would make a lateral move and give up his only positive player on the bench – Bobby Portis.

If Milwaukee were to acquire Beal in a four-for-one scenario, that would leave them with 12 players on their active roster and little room for financial maneuver. They would then have to sign a player to a veteran minimum contract before the trade deadline and use 10-day contracts for their 14th roster spot. Again, the Bucks would essentially lose a large chunk of their roster besides Lillard and Antetokounmpo.

If it’s not Milwaukee for the Bills, another idea that has come up involves the Chicago Bulls including former All-Star swingman Zach LaVine in a Butler trade scenario. However, it’s still the Bucks who would control things as they would have to sign the receiver LaVine instead of Beal. Then there are the questions about whether Beal even wants to join a Bulls team that is struggling for nothing. It’s worth noting that Billy Donovan was Beal’s college coach at Florida, so there’s that connection.

Butler could go to the Suns, Beal could go to the Bulls, LaVine to the Bucks, and the Heat would settle for some package revolving around Middleton and Portis. While this is a business that works from a financial standpoint, there are still a lot of questions about whether many of the teams involved would really want to do it.

No matter how you look at it, the Bucks are the team in control of Butler’s destiny right now. Unless the team and a new trade come out of left field, the Butler trade scenario revolves around Milwaukee’s willingness to change its roster.

Who is helping to make this job easier for Phoenix, Miami?

The Suns agreed to a trade with the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night, a move that raised eyebrows around the NBA. By sacrificing their only first-round pick in 2031, Phoenix received three first-round picks from the Jazz in 2025, 2027 and 2029. All of those picks have yet to be determined, as Utah added protection to give the Suns their worst first-round pick in those years.

Why would Phoenix, a team that has already sold all of its draft assets, make a deal like this and give up their 2031 first-round pick without protection? Well, the Suns have now unlocked the ability to use draft funds for the next five years, allowing them to have the necessary trade bait to satisfy teams and help facilitate a possible Butler trade.

It is the ideology of league personnel that Phoenix would not have made this move with Utah unless they believed they could make a trade for Butler. Even if the Suns don’t make a deal with the Heat, they now have assets that can be used to increase their potential. That’s why this trade was a win-win for both parties.

Presumably, these newly acquired first-round picks will be used as incentives for teams willing to pick up the salary backlog in the blockbuster Butler-Beal trade before the deadline. So who might these teams be and how many front offices will come together to make this deal possible?

In addition to the Suns, Heat and Bucks who could join forces, three other organizations stand out as the most likely to be involved: the Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets.

All three teams have expressed to teams around the league that they are willing to help facilitate trades for future assets, and each franchise has attractive aspects. Charlotte is best known for how Phoenix runs the business, and so do they recently traded Nick Richards and a 2025 second-round pick to the Suns for Josh Okogie and three future second-round picks.

While Toronto has intriguing secondaries like Bruce Brown, Chris Boucher and Kelly Olynyk, Detroit has plenty of cap space. This would allow the Pistons to pick up back wages without any repercussions, while also potentially adding future value in the form of a draft pick.

That’s why the Pistons appeared the most in regards to Bucks if they moved Connaughton to descend under another tax apron.

Not only will the Bucks have to help get Jimmy to the Suns, but several other teams outside of Miami will also have to be involved financially. There are a lot of moving parts to a potential Butler trade before the deadline, which is why the Heat need to consider what’s best for them.

Heat’s target in Jimmy Butler trade scenarios

What do the Heat want for Jimmy Butler?

Depending on who you ask around the league, this answer keeps changing. On one hand, it would make sense for the Heat to bring back players like Middleton, Portis and/or Brown in a potential trade involving Butler, as all three veteran players keep Miami in position to compete this season as they still have Bama Adebayo and Tyler Hero.

However, the idea of ​​realistically competing in the East this season in the playoffs against the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers is a stretch without Butler. Once Butler leaves Miami, either in the coming weeks or in the offseason, the Heat will be able to refocus and regroup their assets to find the next star who can positively change their future.

From De’Aaron Fox to Trae Young to Anthony Edwards, Miami has been linked to several young stars over the years and is monitoring their long-term status. By losing Butler, Pat Riley and the Heat are suddenly in a position where they can once again be forward-looking hunters in the free agent and trade market.

That’s why it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that Middleton would end up with the Heat if the Bucks are involved in a deal that sends Butler to Phoenix. Middleton has a $34 million player option for next season that he likely won’t opt ​​out of at this point given his injury history, and he won’t be a free agent until 2026.

While he could still contribute as a secondary talent alongside Hero and Adebayo for now, some believe Miami would want to include another team to send Middleton for additional assets. Whatever the case, the Heat have signaled they want compensation, not long-term salaries. If possible, getting off the luxury tax threshold is an attractive avenue for Miami.

Exactly two weeks from the trade deadline, the Heat are $13.55 million over the tax line.

The good news for the Suns is that they now have three first-round picks at their disposal after reaching a deal with the Jazz on Tuesday night. At least one of these picks would go to Miami in any scenario involving Butler.

Are Middleton, Portis and/or Brown with a draft pick enough compensation for the Heat to trade Butler to Phoenix? Are the Bucks willing to accept Beal’s contract or would he have to go to Chicago in exchange for LaVine? Will Beal even be willing to waive his no-trade clause in the next 14 days?

No one has the answers to these massive questions right now, and each of these three questions will control how the 2025 NBA trade deadline plays out.