Why the Houston Rockets’ strong start doesn’t guarantee they’re contenders

Despite the possession the fifth best record in the NBAthe Houston Rockets they haven’t proven much yet.

Houston brought Kevin Durant this offseason to elevate the franchise to true championship status. And while early returns look strong on paper11-4 record and No. 2 offensive rating, there are still reasons for concern.

Statistics can be a lot like bikinis: they reveal a lot, but not everything.

The Rockets’ record is strong, but their resume is weak

After starting 0-2, the Rockets have won 11 of their last 13 games, despite missing Dorian Finney-Smith, Tarry Eason and Kevin Durant at various times. It was an impressive start to the year.

But through 14 games last season, Houston was also 10-4 – the same record as this year. Last year’s team then went on a run to start the year with 15 wins in their first 21 games. This year’s version will need to win four of the next six just to match that pace, even after adding Durant and entering the season with heightened expectations.

Furthermore, despite their strong record, the Rockets are 0-3 against teams ahead of them and just 3-3 against teams in the top half of the NBA standings. Most of their wins have come against bottom-ranked teams like Brooklyn, Washington and Dallas.

Houston’s most impressive win so far was their fourth quarter comeback in Milwaukee 17 days ago. A win that seemed more meaningful at the time, as the Bucks have since dropped seven of their last 10 games, taking some of the shine off that victory.

And when Houston had its best chance to prove it was ready for the big stage, Friday night at home against the Denver Nuggets, the Rockets’ stars delivered C-level performances. Alperen Sengun had minus-16, Amen Thompson minus-10, and Durant minus-7, as the trio combined for just 49 points on 47 shots.

The Rockets have looked great against lesser opponents, but real questions remain when they face elite teams, the very teams they will need to beat to win the title.

Not to mention that Houston has yet to hit back-to-backs this season, while also playing the fewest games in the league thus far. The schedule will become more challenging as the season progresses.

Is Houston’s offense built for the playoffs?

Houston has made a dramatic transition from last season’s grind-it-out defensive style to one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league. They are sitting right now No. 1 in offensive ratingjust 0.2 above Denver.

But questions remain about a team that relies on a style we haven’t seen in decades. The Rockets are above everyone else in rebounding, including leading the league in offensive boards. Their second-chance points have been key for an offense that attempts the fewest 3s in the league.

It’s been a great recipe so far, but we just haven’t seen anything like it in the playoffs in recent history. That doesn’t mean it won’t work, but it may lead to some skepticism about the offense’s long-term viability.

Outside of Denver’s title run three years ago, when the Nuggets attempted the sixth-fewest 3-pointers in the league, every NBA champion since 2014 (excluding the 2019-2020 season altered by COVID) has finished in the top half of the league in 3-point attempts and in the top 10 in scoring. The Rockets currently rank 22nd in three-pointers made.

Ironically, Houston’s best performance in that span also came when it led the league in both 3-point attempts and field goals, just one win shy of the 2018 NBA Finals.

Why the Rockets’ lack of a true point guard matters

Another lingering concern is the absence of a true point guard Fred VanVleet is out for the season. Thompson has filled in admirably, but this is an issue that comes up more in the playoffs than the regular season.

Houston is currently last in the NBA in assist percentage and has struggled with pressure on the ball against some of the league’s better defensive teams.

Their 25 turnovers in Oklahoma City and 24 in San Antonio were the main reasons for those losses. Two failed tests against quality opponents.

Houston has enough talent to keep winning through the regular season with Thompson, Reid Shepard and Aaron Holiday handling the ball. But will it be enough against the league’s elite?

So far, that answer has been no.