Why the Rockets’ defense is regressing in Year 3 under Udoka

Under the head coach Making Udokathe Houston Rockets built their identity on courage and defense. However, this season that formula has been reversed. Doc Houston’s offense jumpedits once-reliable defense has sprung a leak, largely due to its heavy reliance on the zone.

Houston is currently ranked No. 2 in offensive ratingjust a hair behind the Denver Nuggets, but he dropped to 10th defensively, and even that number seems generous based on the eye test. The defensive advantage has seemingly faded, as the four teams Houston has faced with winning records have each scored 115+ points.

The main reason for the defensive slump? The Rockets’ reliance on their 2-3 zone. According to Synergy Stats, Houston plays zone defense on 19% of its defensive possessions, nearly double that of any other NBA team (the Miami Heat are second at 10%). In fact, that would be the second-highest zone rate in the 18 years that Synergy Stats has tracked the NBA.

The high rate of zone usage is due to the Rockets’ penchant for their double-man lineup, often pairing Alperen Sengun with Steven Adams. Since neither is as volatile on the defensive end, both are usually stationed deep in the zone to protect the rim.

While the double-sized lineup was very beneficial offensively, especially on the offensive glass, the tradeoff was costly defensively. The Rockets surrender the fourth-most three-point attempts in the league, many of which are open looks, while opponents knock them down 11th (36%).

That weakness was on full display Friday, when the San Antonio Spurs went 18-of-45 from beyond the arc (40%) as they scored 121 points to topple the Rockets’ five-game winning streak.

“Some communication that we need to be better at,” Udoka said of the zone. “I think Fred (VanVleet) was a big part of that last year up top and kind of getting guys in the slots, and it’s not a traditional 2-3. We don’t want it to be like that, so it’s more of a matchup zone. When nobody’s in your area, you’ve got to rotate to find the body, find it, find the man, especially in practice there’s some unusual things. camp, and we want to keep it that way.”

Not only are the Rockets missing VanVleet, but also Dillon Brooks, another defensive anchor from last year’s team.

Zone defense itself is still relatively new to Udoka’s system. Houston implemented it midway through the season last year when they started using Adams more, and he seemed to really catch teams by surprise. But that was the middle of the season. Now, opponents have had a full offseason to prepare, as the Rockets prioritized offseason moves that signaled the style will only be used more often this season.

It’s like a rookie running back taking the NFL by surprise, before going into a sophomore slump. Now there’s more tape on this Rockets defense, more game reps and experience, and more time for teams to prepare for it. Furthermore, teams are often slower to run zone offenses, which could lead to even more success as the season progresses.

And it wasn’t that long ago that Udoka was hesitant to even use a zone defense.

“My assistants have been begging me to work the zone for a couple of years,” Udoka said last March when the Rockets first started using double-man squads. “My thing is, let’s be great at what we want to do first. Obviously, we’ve implemented that this year. It adds another weapon to our defensive playbook. With the double-big lineups we play, the zone is implemented more, and it’s worked really well for us.”

That weapon is now starting to feel like a double-edged sword. The Rockets’ zone defense is very similar to Michael Scott Paper Company’s low prices. Michael thought they were keeping the company in business, when in reality they were shutting them down.

What appears to be a strength may actually be undermining their success. The Rockets still see it as an advantage, but while the double-big lineup has been great on the offensive end, it actually hurts their defense, which is Udoka’s true calling card.