How the Grizzlies value all 12 future NBA draft picks after Jaren Jackson Jr.’s trade

With the stunning trade of the cornerstone of the franchise Jaren Jackson Jr. for the Utah JazzI Morant’s The Memphis Grizzlies have officially turned heads to the reconstruction before NBA trade deadline. EVP/GM Zach Kleiman amassed one of the NBA’s largest collections of future draft assets in the process, including the Desmond Bain deal. A dozen futures NBA draft the spades now belong to the Beale Street basketball operation. However, not all elections are viewed equally.

Based on the league’s valuation and internal strategy, the new treasury is divided into three different levels.

The untouchable NBA Draft class

These are the picks that front offices want as potential blue-chip lottery outcomes. They anchor the rebuilds and lead star trades. The Grizzlies view them as manageable pieces, the fastest and cheapest way to acquire All-Star caliber talent. They are highly desirable in the market due to their unprotected nature and the timelines for rebuilding the teams involved.

With Jackson Jr. gone and the Grizzlies now in a major tanking race in 2026, this is the most direct route to the current top prospect. Currently holding the 9th worst record, Memphis has a strong chance of landing a top 10 selection in a highly regarded draft class.

The team won’t be ready to compete, the roster will be constructed to end up in the NBA draft lottery again. Internally, this aligns with Kleiman’s patient renewal strategy, valuing it slightly below the 2026 pick, but still a core renewal tool. Market-wise, it’s considered another strong lottery bet.

Either Zach Kleiman has a roster of champions and this pick is in the late 20s, or a new front office has taken over. The other 29 NBA teams want this pick as a short hedge, betting against the Grizzlies drafting a pivot from the Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. era.

• 2030 Orlando Magic (unprotected)

From a purely market point of view, this is arguably the most attractive external choice in the war chest. Rival executives are skeptical of Orlando’s long-term organizational stability. The Magic’s current Paolo Banchero project is volatile, with the non-trivial likelihood of another attrition cycle by 2030. Unprotected, long-shot picks from shaky franchises are how teams steal top-five finishes years in advance. This is the kind of asset that can headline a future star pack.

The Grizzlies are having second thoughts

This intermediate level includes types with good slope but more variability. The Grizzlies see them as trade chips to acquire young talent or veterans, while the market values ​​them as reliable but not elite assets.

• 2026 Phoenix Suns (unprotected)

An immediate asset with tangible value, Phoenix’s unprotected 2026 pick should land somewhere in the 20-25 range if the Suns maintain their competitive trajectory. While not a homegrown selection, he is a quality addition in the upcoming draft and could be packaged with Memphis’ own top-10 pick for a team looking to move up for a certain prospect. The certainty of getting a first-round pick in 2026 makes this a reliable but unspectacular asset.

Six years is an eternity in NBA planning, but this pick still holds significant value. If the franchise panned out, this becomes a late first-rounder who is still valuable but not transformative. If they fail, it could be another lottery pick in a continuing cycle of mediocrity. The distance makes projection nearly impossible, but the pick remains a quality asset that most contending teams would be happy to include in a trade package.

By 2028, the Grizzlies expect to be good. The organization believes their current core, along with whoever they draft in 2026 and 2027, has tremendous potential if development goes according to plan. Memphis will likely acquire some All-Star caliber talent to make a postseason run, making this pick a likely 18-25 selection at best. The rest of the NBA sees the vision, but may want to short the market. The difference between internal optimism and external skepticism creates an interesting trading dynamic.

Seven years into the future, this guy is more of a concept than a concrete tool. Still, it gives Memphis flexibility and additional ammunition in trade negotiations. By 2032, the landscape of the league will be unrecognizable. Uncertainty actually increases its value in certain trading scenarios, especially as a sweetener in a larger deal.

The value of scrap in replacements

The lowest tier has choices with hedges, swaps, or bullish projections, making them more difficult to value. Internally, this is seen as additional packaging funds in deals, and the market will want a discount for their contingencies.

• 2031 Phoenix Suns (unprotected)

Matt Ishbia’s post-Superteam future remains unclear now that Kevin Durant has left town. The Suns are doing well now. Aging curves, cap inflexibility and ownership’s appetite for resets all factor into how the league values ​​this pick. Phoenix could be bad by then, but it’s not close enough to be treated as a short-term lottery pick. Ownership could also push for another run at the title, having learned from a few first-goal mistakes.

• 2027. Los Angeles Lakers (top-4 protected)

Protections are important. Top-4 protection greatly reduces the chance of this becoming a franchise-altering asset. The market also assumes that the Lakers will not voluntarily lose a year of prime Luka Doncic, which reduces the downside risk. Useful in packs, but rarely in the center.

• 2029 Memphis Grizzlies (1-14)

It is common knowledge that the replacement cost to select is very difficult. This is contingent on Memphis underperforming the other side in the lottery. With two unreliable franchises involved, the variance is high, but the expected value is modest. Front offices discount swaps heavily unless the paths are clearly different.

• 2029 Orlando Magic (15-30)

This is the least valuable asset in the portfolio. A trade limited to the back half of the first round between two volatile franchises rarely initiates negotiations. It is a marginal driver, not a significant building block.

Zach Kleiman’s Decisions in the Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade and Desond Banes were less about one return and more about buying options. The risk, of course, is that none of these picks become true blue-chip results. If the Grizzlies fail to land at least one true fifth-caliber prospect from this portfolio, the deals will come down as quantity over quality in a league where quality still dictates the cap.