The Warriors’ most realistic bold prediction for the 2025-26 NBA season

Rarely do things end on a high note in the NBA. Father Time, the age-old enemy of us all, is undefeated, and at some point, all good things must come to an end. But in Golden State Warriors‘ case, they at least try to fool themselves in that regard.

With the team they’ve assembled this season, the Dubs have given themselves at least one last runway to stay relevant and competitive, instead of spending last year of Stephen Curry in meaningless, non-competitive games.

However, the question for the Warriors this season remains as true as it has been since Curry and Green were awarded their fourth title: How realistic is the possibility of ring number five?

Given Golden State’s “experienced” years as Kerr and team described their veteran team, a crowded Western Conference with teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets (to name a few), and the grind of an 82-game season, the road to the Finals remains as tough as ever, let alone for any team where the war parts are just in place.

But there is still a way to go. Jimmy Butler injected the Warriors with real juice last season after the trade was completed, in ways that weren’t accidental. They finished the season 23-8 in essentially a must-win sprint to the postseason, where they would eventually upset the two-seeded Houston Rockets.

The trade for Butler, while expensive on the books, extended Golden State’s window, and if there was ever a season where they could return to the Finals, this would and should be the year. With that in mind, here are three realistically bold predictions for the Warriors this season.

The Warriors will finish in the top 3 in free throw rate and opponent turnover rate

If you want to look at the two statistical factors behind the Warriors’ late-season surge last season, look no further than the opponents’ free throw rate and turnover rate.

Using the All-Star break as a dividing line, Golden State went from 23rd in free throw attempts to third in the league. And in terms of forcing turnovers, the Warriors went from 11th in the league in opponent turnovers per game (14.8) to first in the league (17.6). Those are two stats Kerr directly associates with the addition of Jimmy Butler.

If the Warriors want to have any success this season, it starts there because it’s about maximizing their offensive opportunities. Turnovers create extra possessions, and trips to the free throw line tend to save what might have turned into an empty possession. In recent history, Golden State has struggled to make the most of its offensive opportunities.

They don’t rely on the heliocentric dependence of players like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic, players who are trusted to have the ball in their hands for more possession. The Warriors are a five-out, ball-moving offense, meaning they want to move the ball. However, there can be lulls in that style of offense when the shot clock is winding down or when you need a guy to just go for the bucket.

Butler and Curry are capable of that kind of play, but burdening them with that responsibility for 82 games isn’t realistic, so it’s important to get to the free throw line and force turnovers.

One of the young guys will drink

In many ways, the Warriors’ success this season hinges on the rebounding of Jonathan Cumminga, Brandin Podziemski or Moses Moody. That may be true for many teams this season, but it’s especially true for the Warriors, who have admitted they will rely on their youth and depth when managing the workload of a veteran core.

So Pharaoh, looked much more comfortable with what Golden State is asking him to do, which is good considering his agent, Aaron Turner, this summer described Kerr’s vision for Cummings as “the worst $20 million free agent sale in basketball history.” He rebounds, runs the floor, minimizes his tunnel vision by finding cutters, and overall fits well with the Warriors’ game plans so far.

As for Podziemski, he enters the third year with a potential contract extension on the table next offseason. While his IQ and defensive effort were everything Golden State wanted from him, he needs to take a step forward offensively.

His three-point jumper has been on a streak since he entered the league. When it’s on, it’s on: Podziemski scored 26 points in Game 4 against Houston last year. But he is still undecided. Has a tendency to get into foul trouble or miss open shots. Spacing has been an emphasis throughout training camp, and Podziemski’s shooting dictates the fit of many potential Warriors lineups.

As for Moses Moody, the Warriors will rely on him to be the three-and-D point-of-attack defender they lost when they traded away Andrew Wiggins. It is not encouraging that Moody’s is already dealing with a calf injurywhich could delay his season debut. But every team needs long wings who can shoot and defend, and if Moody can achieve that consistency, it only adds to the Warriors’ versatility.

Golden State finishes in the top 6 of the Western Conference

The Warriors can’t stress enough how important it is for them to get off to a fast start. Curry described it as necessary so they wouldn’t have to chase him near the end of the season and burn out. Not to say once again that this is an older team; they need a cushion to afford load management.

That means you’re not fighting for one of the spots in the dreaded Play-In tournament. And with how much Golden State has talked about a strong start to the season, it looks like one of those seasons where they completely avoid that mess and carry over the 23-8 magic from last season into this year.

But to get to the sixth seed in the West, it all comes down to maximizing the games all the veterans play in and stealing the games they don’t. A balancing act that relies heavily on training and infrastructure to manage those mitigating factors is easier said than done, but possible. They have one of the best medical staffs in the league, led by Rick Celebrini, director of sports medicine and performance.

There’s certainly a scenario where the Warriors once again struggle to stay afloat in a crowded Western Conference, but given the buzz and competitiveness the team has been emitting in training camp, it’s hard to believe they won’t hit the ground running once the regular season begins.