3 takeaways from the Warriors’ disappointing loss to the Paolo Banchero-less Magic

There’s just something about The Golden State Warriors are losing to teams that lack a star. The Dubs’ three-game winning streak was snapped by a Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic, falling 121-113 in their fifth game of six games. While Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler combined for 67 points, the Warriors’ defense surrendered 64 points and allowed six Magic players to score in double figures.

“We had to be very sharp tonight. We weren’t sharp enough,” Kerr said after the game. “I thought we played well down the stretch. They played really well; they played fast. I thought in the second quarter, the free throws counted. 18 free throws for them in the second and we just had some plays that we didn’t convert. A couple of turnovers at the time they scored on the other end. I love the effort, the guys gave it everything they had. And then we loved having a good game.”

It was another game in which the Warriors, who ranked 24th in turnovers per game (16.2), lost their turnover battle, a recurring theme. Golden State has won just one game this season where they had more turnovers than their opponent, a recent win against the formidable New Orleans Pelicans. And as Kerr summarized, the reversals came at the worst times, blunting any hope of a comeback.

But considering it was their fifth game in eight days, it’s understandable that tired legs and road fatigue wore on them throughout the game. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Golden State dropped a game against the Miami Heat in less than 24 hours. Regardless, here are three takeaways from the Dubs’ seventh loss of the season

Defense on/off Draymond Green the numbers remain staggering

The only player to finish with a positive plus/minus was Draymond Greenwho posted a +9 in the 8-point loss. It’s the kind of statistic you see in the results and wonder, “Huh, how did that happen?” In reality, that number is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how Golden State fares with Green on and off the court, especially on defense.

Entering the game, the Warriors ranked 10th in the league in points per 100 possessions (113.2). It is fully supported by Green as far as the defense allows 18.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when in the field according to the Cleaning the Glass database. He ranks in the 99th percentile in the league in that on/off category. Additionally, opponents are shooting 7.8% worse in effective field goal percentage, which ranks 97th percentile in the league among qualified players.

At 35, Green remains one of the most effective defenders in the NBA; this is obvious, especially in matches against big stars like Victor Wembanyama. But Golden State’s defense is pretty fed up whenever he hits the bench. The Warriors allow a whopping 123.5 defensive rating when Green is not on the court, which would rank 28th in the NBA, just behind the Wizards and Nets.

It’s a highway to the paint when Green sits. Opponents are hitting past Warriors defenders, and without Green on the back line, help is usually late. Orlando took advantage of that, attacking early and often whenever he saw Green on the bench.

We often talk about how the Warriors’ offense will score when Curry rests, but we don’t talk enough about how the defense will survive when Green is off the floor.

Buddy Hield becomes unplayable

Buddy Hield has had a rough start to the NBA season and didn’t show much sign of breaking out of that slump in his night against Orlando. In 15 minutes, Hield finished with just 2 points on 1-of-3 shooting and a -5 plus/minus and wasn’t much better defensively.

It’s not like Golden State is putting Hield in the game for defense, even if Kerr has called Hield an underrated defender in the past. But they put him in the game to score and space the floor. And while Hield will always command respect from beyond the arc and create space from his sheer presence, he doesn’t make enough threes at a rate good enough to overlook defensive limitations.

The Warriors score 1.3 less per 100 possessions when Hield is on the floor, which ranks in the 40th percentile in the league. On the season, Hield is 18 of 57 from beyond the arc, a 31.6% 3FG percentage that would be his worst ever in a career if he continues to shoot that way.

Couple that with the fact that they are Dubs allow 17.6 more points when Hield is on the floor, which dramatically raises the defensive rating to 131.1 points per 100 possessions, and it becomes unsustainable to give him minutes, especially when guards like Will Richard and Moses Moody are much better at defending and shooting. That’s without mentioning De’Anthony Melton, who is nearing his return from ACL surgery.

And while Hield’s presence in the locker room and chemistry with Butler are certainly important, his $9.22 million salary remains an intriguing trade piece if Golden State looks aggressive in the trade market. Those are uncomfortable conversations the Warriors may have to have if Hield can’t rediscover his shot.

A journey near a merciful end

As much as we’re worried about the Warriors and their chances of contending, they’ve had a pretty terrible schedule to open the season. When they tip off in Miami, they will be playing their 17th game in 29 days in 13 different cities. Given that context, it’s almost a miracle that they came out relatively unscathed and with a positive win-loss record.

The only thing to look forward to once they get through this tough stretch of the season is a string of home games. They will have five home games after returning home from Miami. And when the new year begins, Golden State will have 17 home games in 26 games in January and February.

It’s easy to feel like Golden State is bottoming out as they tread water above .500. Even more so when you look at their alarming turnover rate, defensive deficiencies and habit of losing to teams missing key players. But nights like this one in Orlando are the simple reality of a team featuring multiple stars in their late thirties. It’s all about getting to the postseason in one piece.

Golden State will look to end this road trip on a positive note by reuniting with Andrew Wiggins and the Heat.